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بهمن شفیق
8 دی 1401
29 دسامبر 2022
یک توضیح: در دقیقه 21 سخنرانی به اشتباه عنوان شده است که جریان آنتی ترامپ موفق شد در چهار سال ترامپ کل اروپا را به استثناء اوکراین سازماندهی کند. کشور مورد نظر مجارستان بود، نه اوکراین.
لینک برخی منابع مورد استفاده
Economy
http://www.mlwerke.de/me/me23/me23_741.htm#Kap_24_1
سرمایه از سرشت ترسوئی برخوردار است و از تنش و جدال فرار می کند. این کاملاً درست است اما تمام حقیقت نیست. وحشت سرمایه از فقدان سود و یا سود ناچیز است، همچنان که طبیعت از خلاء وحشت دارد. با یک سود مناسب سرمایه شجاع می شود. از 10 درصد مطمئن باشد، می‌توان آن را همه جا به کار گرفت؛ با 20 درصد سرزنده می شود؛ با 50 درصد به گونه‌ای مثبت جسور می شود؛ برای 100 درصد تمام قوانین بشری را زیر پا له می کند؛ با 300 درصد از خطر ارتکاب هیچ جنایتی نیز پرهیز نخواهد کرد حتی اگه به قمیت دار زدنش تمام شود. اگر تنش و جدال سود داشته باشد، او هر دو را پذیرا خواهد شد. دلیل: قاچاق و تجارت برده.
کارل مارکس، سرمایه، جلد اول، بخش هفتم
"Kapital", sagt der Quarterly Reviewer, "flieht Tumult und Streit und ist ängstlicher Natur. Das ist sehr wahr, aber doch nicht die ganze Wahrheit. Das Kapital hat einen Horror vor Abwesenheit von Profit oder sehr kleinem Profit, wie die Natur vor der Leere. Mit entsprechendem Profit wird Kapital kühn. Zehn Prozent sicher, und man kann es überall anwenden; 20 Prozent, es wird lebhaft; 50 Prozent, positiv waghalsig; für 100 Prozent stampft es alle menschlichen Gesetze unter seinen Fuß; 300 Prozent, und es existiert kein Verbrechen, das es nicht riskiert, selbst auf Gefahr des Galgens. Wenn Tumult und Streit Profit bringen, wird es sie beide encouragieren. Beweis: Schmuggel und Sklavenhandel.
https://www.goldmoney.com/research/when-normality-is-exposed-as-a-ponzi
Furthermore, market conditions for energy are different from the time of the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Figure 1 shows that the oil price had peaked within three months of the annexation and that the subsequent collapse in energy prices with oil falling 70% in less than two years did enormous damage to the Russian economy.
https://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/701457/Risiken-und-Nebenwirkungen-von-Bidens-Subventions-Tsunami
Der IRA sieht für das nächste Jahrzehnt „grüne“ Subventionen in Höhe von 385 Milliarden Dollar vor, die durch Steuererhöhungen und Einsparungen von 750 Milliarden Dollar mehr als gegenfinanziert sind. Während dies für die USA beträchtlich ist, beträgt der jährliche Gesamtbetrag – weniger als 40 Milliarden Dollar – nicht einmal die Hälfte dessen, was die EU-Länder allein für erneuerbare Energien ausgeben (2021: 80 Milliarden Euro (84,5 Milliarden Dollar)). Dies sind etwa 0,5 % vom BIP der EU, gegenüber prognostizierten 0,2 % vom US-BIP.
Doch ist die Größenordnung der Ausgaben nicht die Hauptsorge der EU den IRA betreffend. Das wahre Problem ist, dass die USA damit als erste große Volkswirtschaft Subventionen für erneuerbare Energien ausdrücklich an Vorgaben zur Nutzung inländischer Komponenten knüpfen. Dies ist mit den Regeln der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) eindeutig nicht vereinbar. Diese verbieten die Diskriminierung von Produkten auf Basis des Herkunftslandes. Die EU-Politiker fürchten, dass die IRA-Bestimmungen über inländische Komponenten die europäische Industrie behindern werden.
Der IRA enthält ein breites Spektrum an Bestimmungen, doch die Bedenken der Europäer betreffen weitgehend eine relativ kleine davon: den sogenannten „Clean-Vehicle Credit“. Amerikanische Verbraucher, die neue Elektrofahrzeuge kaufen, haben laut dem Gesetz Anspruch auf eine Steuergutschrift von bis zu 7.500 Dollar; der IRA stellt hierfür über zehn Jahre hinweg 50 Milliarden Dollar bereit.
Was die Europäer und auch andere Autos produzierende Länder wie Südkorea wurmt, ist, dass die Gutschrift nur für in Nordamerika (einschließlich von Kanada oder Mexiko) montierte Autos gilt. Für ein 50.000 teures Auto stellt die Verweigerung einer Subvention von 7.500 Dollar faktisch einen gepfefferten Einfuhrzoll von 15 % auf Importe von außerhalb Nordamerikas dar.
Doch sollte sich die EU nicht zu sehr über den Clean-Vehicle Credit des IRA beschweren. Schließlich verhängt sie selbst einen 10%igen Zoll auf alle Importautos (aber nur 2,7 % auf Batterien). Die sonstigen Bestimmungen des IRA – etwa, dass die Batterie des Autos keine wichtigen Elemente ausländischer „Entities of Concern“ enthalten sollen – sind für US-Verbündete nicht besonders relevant, da sich diese Bestimmungen im Wesentlichen gegen China richten.
https://thegoldobserver.substack.com/p/europe-has-been-preparing-a-global
Jan Nieuwenhuijs
https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/europe-preparing-gold-standard-part-2
https://rumble.com/v21r0ny-episode-360-tom-luongo-and-alex-krainer-3.0.html
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-policy-mistake-will-be-worse-last
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-29/uk-to-relax-ring-fencing-of-banks-as-part-of-brexit-big-bang?leadSource=uverify%20wall
The UK government will relax the ring-fencing of banks as part of efforts to deregulate the City of London and get a “Big Bang” out of Brexit, according to a person familiar with Treasury plans.
City minister Andrew Griffith told a Financial Times banking summit Tuesday: “We can make the UK a better place to be a bank, to release some of that trapped capital over time around the ring-fence.”
Advocates of Britain’s exit from the European Union presented it as an opportunity to sweep aside what they saw as unnecessary rules and regulations that were holding back economic growth. Key to this is a plan to replicate the “Big Bang,” the wave of deregulation in 1986 that turned the City of London into a global finance hub.
https://www.rt.com/business/568897-oil-production-cut-russia-cap/
His statements echo comments made by Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandr Novak on the price-capping issue earlier this week. Novak said that Moscow wouldn’t sell crude to countries that impose a price cap, and may respond to the measure by reducing oil production by 500,000-700,000 barrels a day in early 2023.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Era-Of-Cheap-Oil-Has-Come-To-An-End.html
Of course, there are also the sanctions against Russia, which many expect will hurt the country’s oil production, and that may well happen, but it has not happened yet. In fact, the oil sanctions—in the form of a price cap on maritime exports and an embargo on exports to the EU—have had no effect on oil flows out of Russia. For now.
https://tomluongo.me/2022/12/08/eu-oil-price-cap-stupidity/
To complicate things further, the EU wants to remain flexible to change the cap at its discretion.
“The price cap is not set in stone – it “is fixed for now but adjustable over time,” the EU said last week.
If this sounds like a recipe for complete disaster, it is.
There are many goals of this price cap, some stated, some implied, my comments are in italics afterwards.
- Limit Russia’s oil revenue enough to bleed out their budget. Not likely as the discount to Brent will rise and fall with futures. Russia’s cost of production is the lowest in the world with the highest spare capacity to bring online or take offline.
- Spur other OPEC+ members to pump beyond their quotas and break the cartel. Again, not likely, as the only ones who have spare capacity are also under heavy sanctions, Venezuela, Iran, etc. To crib from Planet of the Apes, “OPEC together strong.”
- Make the Saudis an offer they can’t refuse, to lead OPEC without Russia. This has fully failed as KSA has just signed a Strategic Partnership with China during Xi’s first visit to a foreign power since COVID faster than you can say, “multi-polar world.”
- Bring the price of oil down to allow “Biden” to refill the SPR at a big discount. Only so long as they can manipulate futures prices down and keep demand off the market.
- Cause further chaos in oil shipping to freeze investment capital in an industry trillions behind the curve in exploration because of ESG and “US/EU policy” This is what the real goal is. It’s why I think Liz Truss was taken out as UK Prime Minister and why Germany happily went along with the Nordstream bombing and closing off the Druzbha Pipeline.
- Force Putin to sell Europe oil below market prices to fund the upcoming war effort against Russia, now clearly on the table for 2023. They want you to believe oil flows to Europe have already cratered, while bookings (as Sputnik pointed out) for Sovcomflot’s tanker fleet are up. The only numbers that matter are Russia’s exports, not whether oil flows through western tracking data.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/modi-ignores-wests-sanctions-on-russia/
For India, the reorientation of Russian economic diplomacy toward the Asian region presents huge business opportunities. Who would have thought nine months ago that Russia was going to be the largest supplier of oil to India, leapfrogging Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the US? According to Reuters, India purchased about 40% of all export volumes of Russian Urals grade oil transported by sea in November, when European countries accounted for 25%, Turkey 15% and China 5%.
The figures speak for themselves: in November, while Russia supplied 909,000.4 barrels of crude oil to India per day, the corresponding figures were for Iraq (861,000.4), Saudi Arabia (570,000.9), and the US (405,000.5) Suffice it to say that when Modi upfront listed energy as his talking point with Putin, it reconfirms that India is giving a wide berth to the G7’s hare-brained scheme to impose a price cap on Russian oil exports.
https://mosaik-blog.at/cfa-francs-waehrung-als-waffe-frankreich-afrika-wirtschaftsinteressen/
USA
https://prospect.org/economy/selling-of-jerome-powell-federal-reserve/
Jamie Dimon JP Morgan: Be braced for Hurricane
you have seen things we have never happened before… one is huge growth in this country driven by fiscal and monetary stimulation. This isn’t a normal recovery. Okay. Thank that fiscal stimulation is still in the pocketbooks of consumers are spending it. Spending a very strong level. And the data’s completely distorted by inflation distorted by they went from good books to services, is distorted bay al the ways. But jobs are plentiful, wages are going up, consumers are spending. The lower income folks not quite as much as before. But everybody else. It looks like they have two trillion Dollars more savings rate drop. I don’t like these guys. …
The Fed has to meet this now with raising rates and QT and the new part of this isn’t the raising rates. It’s the QT. We never had QE before like this. Therefore we never had QT like this. So you’re looking at something that could be right in the history books on for 50 years. What was QE, what worked and what didn’t work. I think a lot of parts of QE backfired. I think the negative rates was probably a huge mistake for a whole bunch of reasons I am worry with now. But you have to raise rates. They might do it. You have to do QT. They don’t have a choice because there’s so much liquid in the system. They have to stop the speculation to reduce home prices and the stuff like that. And you have never been through QT. So all the major if you look if you go back to 2010 as a whole all the major buyers of treasuries all that that time it was central banks, foreign exchange managers, banks who were topping up the liquidity profiles because we had to, for regulations. All three it won’t happen to go round. Banks topped up, foreign exchange markets topped up, the central bank would be selling off and governments have much more fiscal deficit to finance. That’s a huge change in the flow of funds around the world. I don’t know what the effect of that is. I prepared for you to be a minimum. Huge volatilty.
And the third thing is Ukraine that you’ve not had a European land war since 1945. Okay. And you could end the complexity of Ukraine is we don’t know the outcome. I always make the list. You know you predict the outcome. Well, you couldn’t predict the outcome of Vietnam, Korea, Afghanistan, Iraq and other conflagrations. All wrong. Wars go bad. They go south. They have unintended consequences. And this happens to be world and commodity markets of the world. Wheat, Oil, gas and stuff like that which in my view will continue. We’re not taking the proper actions to protect Europe from waht’s going to happen in oil in the short run. And we’re not taking the proper actions to protect you all for capped oil in the next five years. Which means it almost has to up the price. We’re not investing enough money to kepp oil. No. And for all those who love the climate change. If oil price goes to 175 or 150 which I kind of think is in the cards to tell the truth, not in the medium run but down the road, then CO2 won’t go down which is everyone predicts because the people buy less oil and gas. It is going to go up because all those other countries out there, the poor countries who need oil and gas to feed and heat their citizens will tur off. Will not buy oil and gas to buy coal.
So those three things fiscally induced growth, QT, Ukraine war. I’m a changed storm clouds out there every day. Look, I’m an optimist. You know, I said storm clouds out there, big storm clouds. It’s a hurricane. It’s right now kind of sunny. Things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the FED can handle it. That hurricane is out there down the road coming our way….
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/jamie-dimon-face-the-nation-transcript-12-11-2022/
And we don't, we don't always really know whether you have a mild recession or hard recession. And if it happens, we're going to be fine. I feel bad, terrible, for people who lose jobs. We want to keep it as short as possible. I do think you're right about a turning point. But that turning point is about geopolitics. That's about Ukraine, oil, Russia, war, migration, food, national security, China trade, that whole bucket of things. And I'd put in that category, quantitative tightening, which is basically reducing the liquidity in the banking system in the world. That that is actually - forget us for a second - that it could be very difficult - high dollar, the dollar going up - higher rates and quantitative tightening on smaller countries around the world
So that's like every war. And so the danger of this war is extraordinary. And it can go on for years. But this oil and gas thing, it looks like they're, you know, the Europeans will get through it this winter. But this oil and gas problem is going to go on for years. So I, you know, if I was, you know, in the government or anywhere else, I'd say, I have to prepare for getting much worse. I hope it doesn't. But I would definitely be preparing for it to get much worse.
Carbon emissions - because quite predictably carbon emissions are going up, because nations rich and poor around the world are turning on -back on their coal plants. They cannot afford expensive energy, and they can't afford no energy. So you know to me - to solve climate, we kind of need all the above, permitting, plants, gas is the best and cleanest way to reduce coal, which is the best way to reduce CO2. So we are really thoughtful policy, confident the policy would get us there. But it also is military policy, economic policy, including trade. So when I say economic, I'm talking about you know trade is one thing, but economic is investment rights. So anything that relates to national security will have to be changed - like you know about semiconductor, rare earths -
Diplomacy
https://www.indianpunchline.com/a-german-china-russia-triangle-on-ukraine/
It comes as no surprise that Wang Yi gave a stern lecturing to Blinken not to “engage in dialogue and containment at the same time”, or to “talk cooperation, but stab China simultaneously”.
Wang Yi said, “This is not reasonable competition, but irrational suppression. It is not meant to properly manage disputes, but to intensify conflicts. In fact, it is still the old practice of unilateral bullying. This did not work for China in the past, nor will it work in the future.”
The current pro-American foreign minister of Germany Annalena Baerbock distanced herself from Chancellor Scholz’s China visit. Evidently, Steinmeier’s phone call to Xi confirms that Scholz is moving according to a plan to pursue a path of constructive engagement with China, as Merkel did, no matter the state of play in the US’ tense relationship with China.
http://english.www.gov.cn/statecouncil/wangyi/202212/23/content_WS63a5936fc6d0a757729e4b57.html
However, it must be noted that the United States should not engage in dialogue and containment at the same time, neither should it talk cooperation, but stab China simultaneously, he said.
This is not reasonable competition, but irrational suppression. It is not meant to properly manage disputes, but to intensify conflicts. In fact, it is still the old practice of unilateral bullying, Wang said.
This did not work for China in the past, nor will it work in the future, he said, adding that China will continue to resolutely defend its sovereignty, security and development interests.
The United States must pay attention to China's legitimate concerns, stop containing and suppressing China's development, especially not constantly challenge China's red line in a "salami-slicing" way, Wang said.
https://www.indianpunchline.com/ukraine-war-tolls-death-knell-for-nato/
Equally, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed at Wednesday’s meeting a military build-up “to bolster Russia’s security,” including:
Creation of a corresponding group of forces in Russia’s northwest to counter Finland and Sweden’s induction as NATO members;
- Creation of two new motorised infantry divisions in the Kherson and Zaporozhya regions, as well as an army corps in Karelia, facing Finnish border;
- Upgrade of 7 motorised infantry brigades into motorised infantry divisions in the Western, Central and Eastern military districts, and in the Northern Fleet;
- Addition of two more air assault divisions in the Airborne Forces;
- Provision of a composite aviation division and an army aviation brigade with 80-100 combat helicopters within each combined arms (tank) army;
- Creation of 3 additional air division commands, eight bomber aviation regiments, one fighter aviation regiment, and six army aviation brigades;
- Creation of 5 district artillery divisions, as well as super-heavy artillery brigades for building artillery reserves along the so-called strategic axis;
- Creation of 5 naval infantry brigades for the Navy’s coastal troops based on the existing naval infantry brigades;
- Increase in the size of the Armed Forces to 1.5 million service personnel, with 695,000 people serving under contract.
Perspectives
https://ria.ru/20221228/ssha-1841748487.html
The first begins with Russia launching a missile attack on a warehouse or an empty airfield in Poland, for example, while at the same time publicly demanding that Washington stop supplying weapons to Ukraine.
The second option is a targeted attack, such as destroying an American satellite in space.
The third option is a targeted attack. Here it is assumed that Russia is launching missile strikes on three air bases in Poland and Romania, from which weapons are supplied to Ukraine. Military personnel and civilians are being killed.
The fourth scenario describes a large-scale (or "less restrained") situation. Russia's attack on US military bases in Europe, including the Ramstein base and the port of Rotterdam.
The entire RAND report looks like an attempt to plan an American provocation on the territory of a European NATO member country, immediately accuse Russia of it and use it as an excuse for their attack. It can be an explosion at an airfield or military base, at a port, or at a weapons depot.
"The only thing that stops our enemies today is the understanding that Russia will be guided by the Fundamentals of the state policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence," said Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, in a recent article. — And if there is a real threat, it will act on them. The trouble is that in this case, no one will later figure out whether it was a retaliatory strike or a preemptive one."
https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2000/PEA2081-1/RAND_PEA2081-1.pdf
https://ria.ru/20221226/velikobritaniya-1841230036.html
The real reasons for the aggravation on the Anglo-Saxon front are actually not so much in Ireland as in Ukraine. In the United States, voices are growing louder demanding that the conflict be frozen at least until spring. For Britain, speculating on the Ukraine crisis has become a last resort.
If London creates something like its protectorate in Eastern Europe-in Ukraine, Poland, Moldova, Romania, then Britain will have some support in the new, post-war world. If Russia maintains its position there and kicks the British out of the continent, then the island will only be left to get cold and starve, sinking into its not-so-brilliant isolation. At the same time, defeat on the Ukrainian front threatens London with the separation of Northern Ireland, Scotland and, perhaps, even Wales.
In addition, there is also the question of Zelensky. The US Democratic Party has just demonstrated that it will support it to the end (although it is not known whose end it will be). Nancy Pelosi kissed his hand. Well, it would seem that the question is closed.
However, London has completely different plans in this regard. The British magazine The Economist, controlled by the local branch of the Rothschilds, recently published two large interviews of Ukrainian military leaders-Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny and General Alexander Syrsky.
Zaluzhny has long been promoted to a style icon, and Syrsky is performing in this role for the first time. This material looks like a frank casting: Syrsky - for the role of commander — in-chief, and Zaluzhny-for the role of Zelensky. Because for the mobilization of the unfortunate Ukrainian masses, the harsh figure of Zaluzhny is more suitable than the small and already played out by London figure of Zelensky.
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/12/whoops.html
Denis Manturov, the head of Minpromtorg, finally explained to TASS those "issues" with CR-929
Translation: - Returning to the topic of international cooperation, what is happening with the joint project of Russia and China to create a long-haul wide-body airliner CR929?
- I think we will hold regular negotiations in the first quarter of next year, and reach clear prospects and deadlines. But our Chinese colleagues today have applications for participation in this project from various manufacturers of components from third countries. We do not consider such a format for ourselves, given the current situation and all the risks that we understand very well. Therefore, in order not to encounter them, we may make a decision for ourselves from a partner within the framework of this project to move into the status of a supplier of aggregates and components.
http://johnhelmer.net/ukraine-armistice-how-the-udz-of-2023-will-separate-the-armies-like-the-korean-dmz-of-1953/
One Moscow source: “I cannot see Russians risking massive armoured movements or repeating their March manoeuvres. I believe the General Staff will wage the electricity war and put pressure on Kiev and on Europe while continuing a slow, inch-by-inch movement in Donbass. General Patience is more important than General Winter. Those two are on a par with General Iskander taking out electric substations and transport corridors. Putin will only come under pressure if he puts himself under pressure to take territory and takes thousands of casualties in the process. He does not want this. The General Staff does not want this. They have made this explicitly clear. So they have come up with new forms of warfare. Just how new these are hasn’t dawned yet in Kiev or Washington or Brussels.”
Operational Development
https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/12/ukraine-sitrep-counter-artillery-war-financial-desaster.html
https://rumble.com/v22nz4l-why-is-russia-conducting-its-special-military-operation-this-way.html
