نبرد اوکراین: واقعیتهای میدانی و اقتصاد سیاسی جنگ

نوشتۀ: بهمن شفیق
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حاکمیت ملی، حق تعیین سرنوشت، قوانین بین المللی و نظمی که در حال تغییر پایه ای است. تغییرات پایه ای در نظام پولی و مالی جهانی و تلاطمهای سنگین پیش رو.

 

بهمن شفیق

25 اسفند 1400

16 مارس 2022

 

برخی منابع

Propagand

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10613069/Putins-forces-able-fight-14-days-military-experts-say.html

Putin's forces may only be able to keep up the fight for another 14 days

Petrodollar

https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/bojo-begs-saudis-ramp-oil-production-despite-latest-round-beheadings

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/petrodollar-cracks-saudi-arabia-considers-accepting-yuan-chinese-oil-sales

Ruble

https://expert.ru/2022/03/15/rubl-na-zapade-stal-stoit-dorozhe-chem-v-rossii/

Bloomberg Nickel

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/inside-nickel-s-short-squeeze-how-price-surges-halted-lme-trading

It was 5:42 a.m. on March 8 in London when the nickel market broke. At that time of day, bleary-eyed traders are typically just glancing at prices as they swig coffee on their way to the office.

 

On this day, however, metal traders across the city were glued to a screen, watching the price action on the electronic market, which was already open to accommodate Asian trading. Nickel prices usually move a few hundred dollars per ton in a day. For most of the past decade, they’d traded between $10,000 and $20,000.

 

Yet the day before, the market had started to unravel, with prices rising by a stunning 66% to $48,078. Now, the traders watched with a mixture of horror and grim fascination as the price went vertical. Already at an all-time high by 5:42 a.m., it lurched higher in stomach-churning leaps, soaring $30,000 in a matter of minutes. Just after 6 a.m., the price of nickel passed $100,000 a ton.

 

The difference is that nickel is a commodity that touches the entire global economy. The metal is found in all our homes as a key ingredient of stainless steel. It’s also one of the most important raw materials needed in making batteries for electric vehicles. “This was the most disorderly move in a metal I’ve seen in my career,” says Mark Hansen, chief executive officer of trading house Concord Resources Ltd. “We had a frenzy based on speculation that accelerated on Monday and Tuesday. People forgot that this isn’t a video game retailer; it’s an important physical commodity.”

Why bet against nickel when you have a nickel business? Xiang wanted to increase Tsingshan’s production dramatically by producing so-called nickel matte for electric vehicle batteries. The company had plans to produce 850,000 tons of nickel in 2022, an increase of 40% in a year, according to a person briefed on them. While few observers believed Xiang could reach that level of production, he was confident. But the obvious consequence of so much nickel hitting the market, he believed, would be a fall in its price.

In late February and early March, Tsingshan, which had sales of 352 billion yuan ($56 billion) last year, paid its margin calls on time. Then on March 7, nickel’s price began its parabolic ascent, surging from $30,000 a ton to more than $50,000. LME brokers and their clients were hit with margin call after margin call. Several large brokers got margin calls of close to $1 billion each over the course of the day.

 

Tsingshan’s were even larger, numbering roughly $3 billion, according to a Bloomberg calculation based on the company’s total short position—which, even after Xiang had closed out a portion of the bet in previous weeks, was over 150,000 tons. The company paid at least some of its margin calls early on Monday, according to a person familiar with the matter. But its obligations dwarfed its available cash and bank credit. As the price rose through the London day after offices in Asia had closed, Tsingshan started struggling to pay, the people say.

 

The LME made a near-unprecedented decision. It decided to cancel all the trades that took place on Tuesday morning—$3.9 billion of them, according to a Bloomberg calculation. Exchanges sometimes cancel trades when technology glitches or “fat fingers” cause one-off mistakes. But it’s extremely unusual for an exchange to cancel whole sessions of trading after the fact. Crucially, the decision meant traders wouldn’t need to pay margin calls on the basis of the $80,000 nickel price. Effectively, it rewound the market to the moment when prices closed on Monday at $48,078.

 

he fallout was immediate. Investors who had booked trades during the chaotic session in the early hours of Tuesday were furious. Among them were some of the biggest names on Wall Street. Executives from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. voiced their displeasure at the decision on a call with Chamberlain. Executives at Tower Research Capital, one of Wall Street’s oldest electronic market-makers, reined in its trading activity on the LME and put its membership in the exchange under review.

Others took to social media. “For the LME to cancel nickel trades between willing buyers and sellers is unforgiveable. UNFORGIVEABLE,” tweeted Mark Thompson, a former trader at Trafigura and Apollo. Cliff Asness, founder of AQR Capital Management, accused the LME, which was for more than a century owned by its members but in 2012 was sold to Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, of “stealing money from market participants trading in good faith and giving it to Chinese nickel producers and their banks.” LME’s Chamberlain defended canceling the trades. “Our fundamental responsibility is market stability,” he told Bloomberg TV. “The prices that were being seen during that Asian session were becoming disconnected from, I believe, physical reality.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trafigura-faces-billions-margin-calls-pozsars-margin-call-doom-loop-prediction-comes-true

https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/13/ins-outs-whose-money-is-it-anyway/

Because here’s the thing everyone has forgotten going back 10 years….. Who owns the LME?

It ain’t London. It ain’t New York. It’s China. And they bought it 10 years ago.

For those wondering when China was going to make its move to support Russia in this financial war, I think it happened on March 8th when they shut down the LME. What do I mean by this?

FX Currency Reserves

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-central-bank-freeze-may-hasten-peak-world-fx-reserves-mike-dolan-2022-03-02/

March 2, 2022

While a huge blow for Russia's economy, the move quickly prompted questions about whether targeting reserve holdings as an act of 'economic warfare' may prompt a rethink by reserve managers across the globe - not least in countries that may be at loggerheads or face a potential conflict with U.S. or EU governments - over where to bank their national stash.

 

It's a potentially huge issue for world markets given that central bank foreign currency reserves totalled a record $12.83 trillion late last year - a rise of $11 trillion over the past 20 years. This money is held mostly in U.S. and European government bills and bonds - with the U.S. dollar still accounting for almost 60% of that and the euro about 20%.

 

Since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russia's central bank had steadily divested its reserves of most U.S. dollar assets. But the dollar, euro and sterling still account for more than 50% of its holdings, located in France, Germany, Japan, Britain, the United States, Canada and Australia.

New Currency

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/03/this-is-important.html

the member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and China will develop a project for an independent international monetary and financial system. This was agreed upon by the participants in the economic dialogue "A New Stage of Monetary, Financial and Economic Cooperation between the EAEU and the PRC. Global Transformations: Challenges and Solutions", which was held on March 11 via videoconference. It is envisaged that the system will be based on a new international currency, which will be calculated as an index of the national currencies of the participating countries and commodity prices. The first draft will be submitted for discussion by the end of March. As Sergei Glazyev, Minister for Integration and Macroeconomics of the EEC, emphasized, China was the first in the world to move to the stage of national economic recovery.

Breton Woods III

https://plus2.credit-suisse.com/shorturlpdf.html?v=4ZR9-WTBd-V

Bretton Woods II was built on inside money, and its foundations crumbled a week ago when the G7 seized Russia’s FX reserves

Lavrov

http://thesaker.is/fm-lavrov-presser-after-talks-with-fm-hossein-amir-abdollahian-iran/

We have held talks with my colleague, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. The talks were held in a traditionally friendly atmosphere and were frank, concrete and useful.

We touched on the situation in Ukraine and around it. We thanked our Iranian colleagues for their objective and well-thought-out position and for understanding Russia’s security concerns, which were caused by the destabilising actions of the United States and its NATO allies. Once again, we noted that our actions are to protect the people of Donbass from the military threat posed by the Kiev regime and to facilitate the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine in full compliance with the values contained in the UN Charter and within the framework of documents, approved at the top-level.

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  • This commment is unpublished.
    Hemn · 4 months ago
    با درود در قسمت مربوط به انگیزه‌ی پولی جورج اورول امکانش هست رفرنس ارائه شود؟
    • This commment is unpublished.
      Hemn · 4 months ago
      @بهمن شفیق سلام مجدد رفیق بهمن عزیز
      متأسفانه به علت مشکلات زیاد من در طول بیش از دو ماه سلسله کنفرانس‌های شما را به طور کامل گوش کردم و به همین علت هم زیاد مطمئن نیستم که در کدام بخش یا دقیقه بود ولی اگر حافظه‌ام خیانت نکند بحث بیشتر به تخریب وجهه‌ی شوروی و روسیه‌ی کنونی و قداست بخشیدن به فاشیست‌های اکراینی بود که بحث جورج اورول مطرح شد ، اگر هم باز به خاطر نیاوردید فردا حتما یک شیفت مرخصی میگیرم و به طور دقیق خدمتتان عرض خواهم کرد
    • This commment is unpublished.
      بهمن شفیق · 4 months ago
      @Hemn سلام رفیق عزیز
      به خاطر نمی آورم چنین چیزی را در رابطه با جورج اورول بیان کرده باشم. اگر ممکن است لطف کنید و کمی دقیق تر بیان کنید که کجا چنین اظهاراتی داشتیم؟ اگر در همین بحث بود، لطف کنید و حدودا بگوئید که بعد ار چند دقیقه این موضوع طرح شد؟
      با تشکر

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