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خیلی عالی بود من از صراحت رفیق بهمن خیلی خوشم میاد نه به کسی باج میده نه امید واهی میده ...
@ریحانهریحانه عزیز سلام. موضوعات متنوعی را طرح کردید. حتما تصدیق می کنید که پرداختن به چنین موضوعاتی در قالب کامنت ...
سلام.خسته نباشید.در ابتدا میخواستم تشکر کنم. از پایداری شما در برگزاری میتینگ های هفته ای و مرتب. امیداوارم این روند ...
بهمن شفیق رویۀ تاریک چین
@امیررفیق عزیز، اگر درست به خاطر داشته باشم این سومین باری است که شما در همین چند ماه اخیر با ...
هم نویسنده آمریکایی و هم مترجم بیش از اندازه به کاربرد عبارت «دارک ساید» وزن دادند. این عبارت بیشتر به ...
@فاطمهسلام متقابل رفیق عزیز،ممنون از توضیحات. قطعا مباحثات در فرصتهای دیگر هم ادامه خواهد داشت. در مورد ادبیاتی که معرفی ...
سلامی مجدد خدمت شما.متاسفانه دسترسی برای بنده سخت هست و با تاخیر مباحث رو دنبال میکنم.در مورد بخش اول پاسخ ...
@امیررفیق عزیز امیر، نخست با پوزش از تأخیر در پاسخ. عنوان کرده اید که قصد تهمت نداشته اید و شاید ...
@بهمن شفیقبا سلام دوباره. خوب گفتگوی نوشته از برخی جوانب مثبت است اما تشخیص لحن را کمی دشوار میکند. من فقط ...
@امیررفیق عزیز امیر، با سلام متقابل. در کامنت خود نکات ارزنده ای را هم طرح کرده اید که حتما لازمند ...

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قزاقستان: نبرد در خیابانها، کشمکش میان بلوک متخاصم و جنگ روایتها

نوشتۀ: بهمن شفیق
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چرا تکرار صف بندی ها و مباحث جنگ سوریه و کودتای اوکراین کافی نیست؟ چگونه ناکارآمدی کلیشه های تحلیلی تاکنونی آشکار می شود؟ کدام نیروهای اجتماعی درونی و کدام نیروهای برونی تحولات قزاقستان را رقم زدند؟  تأثیر تحولات بر بلوک بندی های اوراسیا و ترانس آتلانتیک چه خواهد بود؟ چپ در کجا ایستاده است؟

 

بهمن شفیق

18 دی ماه 1400

8 ژانویه 2022

 

برخی منابع مورد استفاده و مفید:

Multipolar World

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/01/chinas-excellent-very-good-year.html#more

Produced nearly one new billionaire and 300 millionaires every workday.

Sold $140 billion retail online in 24 hours (Amazon’s record is $5 billion).

https://www.akhbar-rooz.com/137352/1400/10/17/

Workers

http://www.idcommunism.com/2022/01/kazakhstans-uprising-isnt-color.html?m=0

Aynur Kurmanov, co-chairman of the Socialist Movement of Kazakhstan.

Speaking at the YouTube channel of the Russian Communist Workers' Party (RCWP), Kurmanov made some interesting remarks concerning the situation in Kazakhstan. “The main body of today's protesters in Kazakhstan consists mainly of workers in the oil/natural gas, metallurgy, mining sectors, as well as from unemployed youth”, Kurmanov pointed out and underlined that the starting point of the demonstrations were the strikes of industrial workers.

The factories where the strikes began, said Kurmanov, are predominantly owned by U.S. and British capital. “The factories where the strikes began are factories of Kazakh oligarchs and western partners, led by the Nazarbayev family” he added.

Clans

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7357246.html

Former head of the National Security Committee Massimov was detained in the case of high treason. De Facto, this finally legitimizes the existing belief that the reason for everything was the disassembly of the Kazakh clans and their struggle for power, in which Tokayev is now winning. In addition to Massimov, other unnamed high-ranking officials are reported to have been arrested.

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7356376.html

2. It is becoming increasingly clear that the gas protests were just a screen behind which the struggle of Kazakh clans was hidden. Talk about the betrayal of some of the leadership of the National Security Committee and the Ministry of Internal Affairs, as well as the involvement of the Nazarbayev clan, creates a situation where accusations of high treason and an attempted coup can be brought against Nazarbayev's entourage or even Nazarbayev himself (if he is still alive at all). Today, the media reported on the arrest of a relative of Nazarbayev, and then denied it. There appears to be a trade between the Kazakh clans about the terms of the Nazarbayev clan's concessions and the transfer of full power to Tokayev, who has already received guarantees of foreign policy legitimacy from Putin, and Xi Jinping, who is pointedly silent about the "leader of the nation" as if he doesn't exist at all. People's protests against extortionate gas prices in this regard could have been a calculated situation that was planned to be used in the interests of the transferred authorities inside Kazakhstan, and already in the course of events, other players began to join this situation - the United States, Turkey, Britain, small satellites Poland, Ukraine, etc. , as well as Russia (with the CSTO) and China. As a result, Russia made a knight's move, implementing a completely amorphous (and therefore unexpected) scenario with the entry of CSTO troops, and the entry itself was carried out very quickly, which also probably broke many scenarios of other players. But the game is not over yet, because the crisis within the Kazakh government itself has not been fully resolved and the perpetrators of what happened have not been named/appointed. On the other hand, if the CSTO mission is successful and the bet on Tokayev is successful, Russia can count on strengthening its influence in Kazakhstan, since Tokayev will later need the support of Moscow and Beijing, between which he will maneuver, which will most likely lead to a weakening of Western and Turkish influence in Kazakhstan. If events continue to drag on, things may turn out the other way around. Chaotic behavior benefits the West and Turkey. Stabilization - to Russia and China. We are waiting to see whose line wins. One could say, but there are still the people of Kazakhstan. Yes there is. But now he acts as a statistician, a tool for various players and an object of manipulation.

5. The infernal butchert continues in Armenia due to the fact that Pashinyan, who came to power as a result of the color revolution, sends troops to Kazakhstan to fight the color revolution (as Xi Jinping called the events in Kazakhstan). This only shows that Pashinyan is an ordinary opportunist, as well as the insignificance of the Armenian opposition, which could not pick him up after he lost the war, surrendered the territories of Karabakh and parts of the territory of Armenia itself. In general, this is a purely intra-Armenian grater and an attempt to reflect on what is happening in the country after 2018. The Armenians helped carry Pashinyan across the street, then elected him in the elections (twice), so who better than them to deal with the consequences of their choice. And yes, to increase cognitive dissonance, a large monument of Russian-Armenian friendship is planned to be erected in Yerevan. Of course, they are already trying not to mention the desire to expel Russian troops from Gyumri - the Turks are close by.

At the same time, it is worth noting that Turkish and Azerbaijani social networks are not yet available.networks continue to incite protests in Kazakhstan, which suggests that "friend Recep" has not yet said goodbye to trying to fish in muddy waters, although the introduction of CSTO troops narrows the space for solutions for him.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what’s-really-behind-protests-kazakhstan-199070

Green Deal Nationalinterest Nikolas K. Gvosdev

Is the West’s pursuit of green energy and climate change targets indirectly responsible for the current unrest in Kazakhstan? And what might this suggest about links between environmental policy, energy choices, and Eurasian geopolitical stability?

While LPG is not natural gas (in either pipeline or LNG forms), further protests that interrupt the export of both oil and natural gas will put more pressure on the new German coalition to take steps to improve Germany’s energy and economic security even at the expense of allied solidarity.

Coup de tat

https://www.rbc.ru/politics/07/01/2022/61d863399a7947dc8c6e8e6c

Yermukhamet Yertysbayev, a former information minister and former adviser to the country's first president Nursultan Nazarbayev

"It is a national betrayal and conspiracy that there have been training camps for several years. The National Security Committee, which periodically neutralized this or that group, was silent about the numerous training camps set up in the mountains. This is a terrible state crime, " the Telegram channel quotes Yertysbayev as saying Nur.kz.

"I have exclusive information that, for example, 40 minutes before the attack on the airport [Alma-Ata], the command was given to completely remove the cordon and security. Can you imagine that the building of the KNB department, the most secure and protected building in Alma-Ata, was easily captured by terrorists? This could have happened only with the direct connivance of those people who should be responsible for the national security of the country," Yertysbayev said.

Gazeta

https://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2022/01/06/14391385.shtml

Pyotr Miloserdov,

I believe that these protests were organized by disaffected Kazakh elites. Perhaps by elites from Western Kazakhstan. I think the rise in the price of liquefied natural gas is just an excuse to gather people and take them to the streets.

The driving force behind these protests is rural youth. There is such a term "mambet" in Kazakhstan — this is selyuk, a person from a remote village. These young boys are not used to living in the city, they have a low level of culture. The feudal-tribal structure is preserved, an archaic form of community in which everyone knows everyone. It probably helps them get organized.

The looters that the media is talking about are also peaceful protesters. The lack of political culture and social movement makes pogroms the most accessible form of protest.

Mambets

https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7354174.html

Mambets, unlike Russian peasants and provincial residents, live much worse. Often they don't have electricity, and if they do, they don't actually have anything to pay for it. They dress in the cheapest Chinese clothes — which is why, if you look at the video from Alma Ata, most of the rioters are wearing cheap tracksuits and sweatpants. Mambets live in adobe huts (and some even in yurts), in which it is good if there is some kind of stove (and often an ordinary hearth with a chimney).

Mambets are not always able to send their children to school on a regular basis, and they are fed by hard rural labor. Today there is a lot of work-it means that the child will not go to school, not before. With medical care, the Mambets, of course, are also in no way. As well as with social benefits. They just don't exist. In general, Mambets live only slightly better than Negroes from wild Africa.

Moreover, mambets are not included in statistical reports: they are not subject to calculating GDP or the level of welfare, and they cannot be taken into account in calculating the average salaries of the population. They live in communities, often in remote regions. And they make up about a quarter of the total real population of Kazakhstan: with all their desire, representatives of social services and just census takers of the population will not get to remote places where Mambets live.

Because of such living conditions, the concept of statehood is not just not applicable to Mambets — it is as incomprehensible as possible for them. Well, imagine a peasant from the XVIII century. Or a Negro from the depths of Africa. Therefore, the laws for them, all sorts of criminal and administrative codes — this is something from the category of crows cawing. They just don't think in such categories.

Now, if a city dweller is incited to commit some kind of offense, his first thought will be "What does this mean for me?". First of all, Mambets will not think about such a topic, and secondly, they will not face such a dilemma: if they find themselves in the zone, then for them it is equivalent to a trip to a sanatorium where they are warm and fed every day (those who were hungry will understand what "eat every day"means).

The Mambets themselves are unspoiled people. You can't just provoke them. Well, it will not be possible to come to them to some fat Ukrainian, give them money and incite them to obscenity. But! For them, ordinary residents of five-story buildings are akin to oligarchs. "A frozen person can't understand anything" is about Kazakh mambets. They look at those who live in ordinary five-story buildings-Khrushchebs - as enemies of the people.
On this and played.

As for the general phenomenon, in the absence of the USSR, it is clear that in Kazakhstan hardly anyone will be concerned about systematic efforts to raise these people up the civilizational ladder. In fact, part of the population of Kazakhstan is frozen in a wild archaic state (among all these clans, zhuzs, etc.) and there is no one to try to pull them out of this state.

Hence the bestial nature of the events in Alma-Ata and the actual use of this dark mass (and also diluted by the criminal element carefully released in Alma-Ata) by certain forces that manipulated the protests, which began seemingly as quite ordinary protests of the working class with understandable and justified demands against insolent officials and gas workers who were in collusion with them. And if these were ordinary protests, then after the authorities merged and agreed to roll back the price of gas and remove the government, then we were facing classic protests with socio-economic demands, where the protesters succeeded without any serious bloodshed and pogroms. But this was, unfortunately (primarily for adequate Kazakhs who were outraged by the increase in gas prices), only the highest level of events that took place.

Statehood Nazarbayev Lenta.ru

https://lenta.ru/articles/2020/12/19/kazah/

"Kazakhstan, the Kazakhs have never had a border. There has never been statehood within the borders outlined today, " he said on national television on August 24, 2005. "There has never been a Kazakh state, because it had no borders," is another similar statement made at the congress of livestock breeders in Alma-Ata in 2011.

Kazakhstan is a young state. Our great advantage lies in the fact that Kazakhstan's relations with other countries are developing from scratch

Nursultan Nazarbayev

Kyrgyz View the Diplomat:

https://thediplomat.com/2022/01/the-kazakhstan-crisis-a-view-from-kyrgyzstan/

Aidai Masylkanova is a Kyrgyz national. She is formerly a Counterterrorism Network Coordinator of the OSCE (Vienna, Austria). She has served in field missions of the OSCE and the United Nations, including in Afghanistan, Ukraine, Macedonia, Moldova, Armenia and South Sudan.

The mood is as if the unrest were happening here.

People are quite emotional in voicing their support for our neighbors, whom we see as a brother nation. Therefore, the news that the Kyrgyz army would participate in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) coalition to support Kazakh government forces to fight against what they have labeled “foreign terrorists” was immediately and widely condemned.

Propagand Worldcrunch

https://worldcrunch.com/world-affairs/kazakhstan-news/this-will-not-end-quickly-or-peacefully

Anna Akage is a freelance journalist based in Paris. Articles published in The Atlantic Council, LensCulture, L'Oeil de la Photographie, American Social Documentary Network, Polish doc! photo magazine, and others. In love with documentary photography and Chinese noodles.

The median age is young (30-35 years old) and mostly urban. Religion (Islam) is separate from politics and social life, meaning it would be impossible for religious fundamentalists to take power. The country has an enviable geographical location at the crossroads of transport flows between Europe and Asia. It has more oil than Russia and no previous bloody history like most of its neighbors.

The January protests have just begun and will undoubtedly affect the whole region and the post-Soviet republics. Russia has already taken advantage of the situation and deployed paratroopers, but it will not end there. Even the elimination of Nazarbayev, who was previously untouchable, would not necessarily mark the end of the regime. The people of Kazakhstan are demanding change. The first blood has already been shed, which means that it is all but impossible to count on a peaceful outcome.

Combat Readiness

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/321239/

Perhaps our common salvation lies in the fact that our military clearly prepared for such a turn of events in advance. Look here: a record number of live-fire exercises were held in 2021 at our main stronghold in Central Asia, the 201st Russian military base in Tajikistan — more than 300. In other words, for some reason Moscow ordered: “Spare no bullets!”

On December 7, the Russian legal information portal, literally a month before the current events, reported that Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan had created a special closed joint communication system between their armies. As it is written in the document — to exchange information and coordinate their interaction.

The agreement provides for permanent combat duty at the command posts of the participating countries. It is, of course, carried around the clock. And this is definitely another clue to the efficiency with which the CSTO troops have just been decisively and without any doubts brought into Kazakhstan.

China

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what’s-really-behind-unrest-kazakhstan-199243

Kazakh officials allegedly collaborated with Chinese-affiliated actors to effectively block all internet access in an effort to stop the protesters from organizing. Beijing, which is a major investor in Kazakhstan’s energy sector, has offered statements of avid support to Tokayev throughout the protests. “China is willing to provide necessary support to Kazakhstan to help Kazakhstan tide over its difficulties. Regardless of the risks and challenges encountered, China is Kazakhstan’s trusted friend and reliable partner,” said Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Communist Parties

https://vacpusa.org/2022/01/05/stand-with-kazakhstan/

http://www.idcommunism.com/2022/01/communist-party-of-mexico-solidarity.html?m=0

http://www.idcommunism.com/2022/01/kke-in-solidarity-with-workers-protests-in-kazakhstan.html?m=0

Kazakh Socialist Movement

http://www.idcommunism.com/2022/01/statement-by-socialist-movement-of-kazakhstan-on-the-situation-in-the-country.html?m=1

In Zhanaozen itself, workers at their indefinite rally formulated new demands – the resignation of the current president and all Nazarbayev officials, the restoration of the 1993 Constitution and related freedoms to create parties, trade unions, the release of political prisoners and an end to repression. Immediately, the Council of Aksakals was created, which became an informal body of power.

Thus, the entire movement was broadcast the demands and slogans that are now used in different cities and regions, and the struggle received political content. Attempts are also being made on the ground to establish committees and councils to coordinate the fight.

At the same time, troops were gathered in Almaty, Aktau and Zhanaozen, and if in the Mangystau region everything went peacefully so far, and the soldiers refused to disperse the demonstrators, then shootouts began in the southern capital, and on the night of January 5-6, special units were introduced, which began a force sweep of the airport and neighborhoods captured by the rebels. According to various sources, there are already dozens of deaths on the part of demonstrators.

In this situation, there is a danger of forceful suppression of all protests and strikes, and here it is necessary to completely paralyze the country with a general strike. Therefore, it is urgent to form unified action committees on the territorial and production principle in order to provide organized resistance to military-police terror.

WFTU

http://socialismkz.info/?p=26830

This method, the organization of pogroms and atrocities, is used by the bourgeoisie to discredit the movement of working people in many countries of the world.

The use of CSTO forces, including Russian security forces, will only lead to an increase in anti-Russian sentiment in the republic, which nationalist forces will certainly take advantage of.

The trade unions of the WFTU demand that repression of the just protests of the working class of Kazakhstan be prevented.

We demand the restoration of freedom of trade union activity in the republic.

We oppose the use of CSTO forces in the role of gendarmes.

We express our solidarity with the struggle of the workers of Kazakhstan!

Russian Communist Workers Party

http://socialismkz.info/?p=26814

The authorities were really afraid of the power of the united people, the president met all the economic demands and dismissed the Government.

However, it is impossible to calm down and celebrate the victory. Power in the country still remains in the hands of big capital. The troops have not been returned to their permanent locations. The enterprises are in the hands of the former owners. The authorities have already asked for help from their CSTO partners, who understand the danger of an example of a popular uprising for other republics. It should be understood that the bourgeoisie of Kazakhstan crossed the line already in 2011, shooting the workers of Zhanaozen. Today, they will probably stop at nothing. At the slightest opportunity, all the things that are taken out of your hands. if the concessions are taken back, the repression will return with the same ferocity. Capital cannot exist without exploitation. Therefore, the workers must organize themselves in class organizations and fight not for the replacement of one clan by another, but for their own workers ' power. The communists understand that these protests are not complete without the participation of other capitalist clans opposing the Nazarbayev family – the synchronization of the protests and the one-sided orientation of the slogans were too obvious. It is no secret that for many years on the territory of the former Soviet republics Various capital-funded NGOs, including large foreign States, are working to train universal activists in the republics. Activists have their own headquarters, finances, and connections, and at some point try to ride the protests and lead them in the right direction for their owners, reducing everything to replacing one ruling clique with another, but leaving private property relations untouchable. Any mass action of the people awakens various social strata to political life. Our party expresses its unqualified support to those working people who he fights against the abominations of capitalism and the shameless, snickering ruling elite. We see in their struggle the growing self-consciousness of the working class, the acquisition of invaluable experience in successful struggle, and the realization of the need for class organization. Of particular importance is the recognition of the need for class solidarity, the transition from demands for one master to demands for the entire ruling class, and from purely economic demands to political ones. We strongly condemn the actions of the declassed elements who joined the popular protest, provocateurs and looters who discredit the speech of the multinational proletariat of Kazakhstan and make it easier for the authorities to forcibly suppress strikes, rallies and demonstrations under the guise of "protecting the population from terrorists".

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what’s-really-behind-unrest-kazakhstan-199243

Pan Turkish Pan-Islamist

The full extent of the protesters’ aims remains uncertain. Several thousand protesters in Zhanaozen recently presented what the Washington Post described as the “most specific list of demands to date,” including Tokayev’s removal from power, expanded civil rights protections, and a return to a 1993 version of the Kazakh constitution that is believed to be more democratic. But it is unclear if the demands of this specific crowd can be interpreted as an accurate representation of the aims of the protest movement writ large. Kazakh officials and Russian news reports alleged widespread evidence of Islamic fundamentalist sentiment among some of the protesters, with rioters reportedly uttering Islamist slogans whilst attacking government buildings. Kazakh media reporting pointed to the presence of outside agitators who allegedly incited crowds with pan-Turkish and pan-Islamist rhetoric. Allegations of external interference are playing out in the backdrop of what increasingly appears to be a schism unfolding within Kazakh elite society.

Links

https://de.topcor.ru/23455-proval-majdana-v-kazahstane-dlja-ssha-opasnee-chem-porazhenie-v-afganistane.html

https://de.topcor.ru/23455-proval-majdana-v-kazahstane-dlja-ssha-opasnee-chem-porazhenie-v-afganistane.html

https://thesaker.is/steppe-on-fire-kazakhstans-color-revolution/

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-kazakhstan-could-shift-putins-calculus-on-ukraine/

https://thediplomat.com/2021/04/is-northern-kazakhstan-at-risk-to-russia/

https://daviscenter.fas.harvard.edu/about/people/aidai-masylkanova

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RH2WWWKwzE0&t=18s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFg7UCK0Hsg&t=523s

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/01/06/kazakhstan-s-unprecedented-crisis-pub-86137

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  • This commment is unpublished.
    ali · 11 days ago
    خیلی عالی بود من از صراحت رفیق بهمن خیلی خوشم میاد نه به کسی باج میده نه امید واهی میده هر چی هست همان را میگه با تشکر

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