غزه، اوکراین، سان فرانسیسکو: خطوط نظم نوین جهانی آشکار می شود

نوشتۀ: بهمن شفیق
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صفوف مبارزه طبقاتی شفاف می شوند: چگونه مناسبات طبقاتی در ژئوپلیتیک بازتاب می یابند. اسرائیل در غزه پیروز نشد. اوکراین با شتاب به سمت اضمحلال سیر می کند. نئوکنسرواتیوهای آمریکا در دشوارترین شرایط قرار می گیرند. لیبرتارین ها در آرژانتین به قدرت می رسند. تعمیق مناسبات سرمایه داری در ایران در پرتو تغییر معادلات جهانی.

بهمن شفیق

۹ آذر ۱۴۰۲

۳۰ نوامبر ۲۰۲۳

 

 

SP Gaza

https://svpressa.ru/war21/article/396217/

Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov recalled the position of Yevgeny Primakov himself, who noted that " the Palestinian problem has no equal in terms of its ability to spread to the global level."

"Let's be honest, there is no solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict," says Vladimir Blinov, an associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

"Co-existence is impossible. And the Oslo Accords in the 1990s confirmed this once again. The position on the creation of an independent Palestinian state is convenient for those who speak, firstly, because it is impossible, and secondly, it allows you to maintain a semblance of impartiality.

This conflict will continue until one of the opposing sides leaves the disputed lands.

San Francisco

https://www.cfr.org/blog/presidents-inbox-recap-apec-summit

 

https://www.csis.org/events/apec-2023-analysis-and-outcomes

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/what-chinas-xi-gained-his-biden-meeting-2023-11-17/

In return, the U.S. government on Thursday removed a Chinese public security forensic institute from a Commerce Department trade sanction list, where it was placed in 2020 over alleged abuses against Uyghurs, a long-sought diplomatic aim for China.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1301958.shtml

Russia-Apec

https://tass.com/economy/1708113?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com

Russia’s delegation at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit was accepted properly and as defined by the protocol, Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk who heads the country’s delegation at the summit that is about to end in San Francisco (California), said.

"There was very friendly, working atmosphere here. I would like to say that our delegation was accepted properly here, in accordance with all rules proper to protocol, and we see no signs of worse attitude to us compared with that to other delegations," he told reporters, adding that the Russian delegation was welcomed by US President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden at the summit as requested by the protocol.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231112-us-says-to-be-good-hosts-to-russia-at-apec-summit

The United States will treat Russia as a full participant in this week's Asia-Pacific summit in San Francisco, despite US efforts to isolate Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, a senior official said Sunday.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/11/17/outside_apec_complaints_of_intimidation_assaults_150072.html#2

Xi’s 10 years as president are marked by a genocide against China’s Muslim minority, attempts to wipe out Tibetan culture, and persecution of Christians and followers of Falun Gong – not to mention a crackdown on democracy, religious freedom, and civil rights in Hong Kong.

On Wednesday night in the confines of San Francisco’s Hyatt Regency ballroom, America’s corporate chieftains gathered to fete Xi as a “guest of honor” at a banquet drawing nearly 400 attendees. The gala took place on the sidelines of the Asian Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, a gathering of 21 member countries to support free trade and business ties. 

The executives were so excited to share the room with the Chinese president that they gave him two standing ovations before Xi uttered a wordAmerican titans of business, including Apple’s Tim Cook and Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman, Black Rock’s Larry Fink, Boeing’s Stanley Deal, and Pfizer’s Albert Bourla, joined Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo to rub shoulders with Xi and a cohort of Chinese officials

Tickets for the banquet started at $2,000 each, with several companies shelling out $40,000 to buy eight seats at a table in the ballroom and one at Xi’s table. After Xi’s remarks, attendees provided yet another standing ovation, according to Reuters.

Australia-China

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202311/1302481.shtml

Recently, two important events took place that have a close relationship with each other, but the relationship is not what one would initially expect.

on November 4-6, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese made a successful visit to China. He came with the largest ever number of Australian companies participating in the sixth China International Import Expo held in Shanghai.

So what is the relationship between these two events? Note carefully the role of US and Australian businesses in each case: In the first, many US business leaders welcomed President Xi's delegation in San Francisco; In the second, Australian businesses backed up Albanese's visit with practical and concrete actions in Shanghai. Obviously, US and Australian businesses have been making it very clear, albeit perhaps quietly and in their own way, that good economic relations with China require sound, practical and realistic government policies.

However, business leaders were paying attention and as time went by, these government "policies" began hurting their economic bottom line. And these business leaders, especially those involved in organizations that had for many decades facilitated ever-deeper economic engagements with China, began to make their views known. They were saying clearly that enough is enough. It seems that the US and Australian governments have finally listened.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Australia-s-Albanese-paid-a-high-price-for-his-trip-to-China

Canberra no longer seems willing to stand up for rules-based international order.

In fact, Australia paid a significant price to clear a path for Albanese's meeting with President Xi Jinping.

First, in August, Canberra dropped its World Trade Organization complaint against trade duties that China had imposed on Australian barley, despite reports that a dispute settlement panel had already found in its favor. Canberra has been content to allow China to resume barley imports without any acknowledgment of fault or offer of restitution to aggrieved Australian growers.

Looking at the bigger picture, Australia has shown that it is no longer willing to stand at the tip of the spear when it comes to defending the rules-based international order. By dropping the WTO case, the Albanese government has turned its back on formally calling out and punishing China for its illegitimate behavior.

One wonders what they have concluded about Australia's decision to prioritize immediate gains from resuming an export trade that was previously worth around 916 million Australian dollars ($597 million) over the higher goal of defending global fair trade.

Last month, Canberra repeated its act of self-interested capitulation, suspending a WTO case against China over its coercive tariffs on Australian wine while Beijing undertakes a five-month review. The EU and 17 WTO member states had joined Australia's complaint as interested third parties.

 

The decision by Albanese and Trade Minister Don Farrell to lead a delegation to the China International Import Expo in Shanghai makes clear that Australia is prepared to forgive and forget Beijing's campaign of trade coercion.

Indeed, that was the message received by some 200 Australian corporate leaders traveling with Albanese to Shanghai. Freed from the burdens of geopolitical reality, they toasted Albanese and their own expectations of new export sales to China.

There is an obvious folly in encouraging Australian businesses to let bygones be bygones and disregarding the lessons learned over the past two years about the vagaries of China's political economy. Albanese's actions also contradict Australia's declared commitment to join with the U.S. and other allies to "de-risk" to reduce dependence on China in critical areas and confront their vulnerability to potential economic coercion.

https://www.rt.com/news/583157-taiwan-australia-xi-hidden-agenda/

Taiwan has warned Australia to be wary of a rapprochement with China, claiming that President Xi Jinping could be attempting to drive a wedge between Western countries.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/11/on-sub-imperial-power-by-arnaud-bertrand.html

G20-WTO

https://www.g20.org/content/dam/gtwenty/gtwenty_new/document/review-docs/IIASA_policy_on_WTO_reform.pdf

Jeffrey Sachs

a International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria

b Columbia University, USA

c University of Central Florida, USA

d Covington & Burling LLP, Belgium

e Yale University, USA

f Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), Russia

The Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC, Russian: Российский совет по международным делам) is a non-profit academic and diplomatic think tank established by the presidential decree dated 2 February 2010.[1][2] The founders of the RIAC are the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Ministry of Education and Science, Russian Academy of Science, the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs and Russian news agency Interfax.

Doha 2015: The obvious schism was between developed and developing countries (BRICS countries in particular), but also within these two groupings.

Against this backdrop, the WTO faces considerable criticism, leading to the view that a WTO reform is long overdue8 . Concerns that the existing framework caters overtly to the interests of multi-national corporations and prioritizes economic growth at the expense of other policy priorities and values such as environmental protection, labor interests, human rights, public health, and poverty alleviation, has precipitated a dramatic decline in public support for trade liberalization, and raised a “legitimacy crisis for the WTO” .

Economic models of some WTO members are based on strong state involvement and may involve other departures from the principles of neoliberalism, which forms the foundational basis of the WTO’s approach. If this discrepancy is not addressed, the WTO is at risk of losing relevance. A dedicated forum and a work program could be set up within the WTO to initiate discussions aimed at resolving this discrepancy. Economic models of some WTO members are based on strong state involvement and may involve other departures from the principles of neoliberalism, which forms the foundational basis of the WTO’s approach. If this discrepancy is not addressed, the WTO is at risk of losing relevance. A dedicated forum and a work program could be set up within the WTO to initiate discussions aimed at resolving this discrepancy.

 

Ilan Pappe

https://youtu.be/U_MGbWeS7Ec

USA-Gaza

https://www.yenisafak.com/en/news/us-actively-working-to-establish-safe-corridor-for-gaza-civilians-white-house-3671746

Oct. 12

The US is in active talks with Israel and Egypt to establish "safe passage" corridors for civilians in Gaza to flee ongoing Israeli airstrikes, the White House said Wednesday amid an expected ground offensive in the besieged enclave.  

Oct. 29

President Biden @POTUS - 21:23 UTC · Oct 29, 2023

I also spoke with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi to share my appreciation for Egypt facilitating the delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

We reaffirmed our commitment to work together and discussed the importance of protecting civilian lives, respect for international humanitarian law, and ensuring that Palestinians in Gaza are not displaced to Egypt or any other nation.

Nov. 28

Joe Biden @JoeBiden - 22:00 UTC · Nov 28, 2023

Hamas unleashed a terrorist attack because they fear nothing more than Israelis and Palestinians living side by side in peace.

To continue down the path of terror, violence, killing, and war is to give Hamas what they seek.

We can’t do that.

US-Russia

https://www.indianpunchline.com/us-seeks-strategic-dialogue-with-russia/

 

https://tass.com/politics/1696471

25 OCT, 04:22

Russia assessing informal US proposals on strategic stability, senior diplomat says

"It is a well-known position that has been put into a single document. We are calmly studying it and will give a response to the Americans in due time," Sergey Ryabkov added

IMEC-China-Russia

https://www.indianpunchline.com/india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor-is-a-geopolitical-pipe-dream/

Presumably, the IMEC will be used by all countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin has expressed the hope that if the IMEC does materialise in the fulness of time despite the obstacles in the way, Russia’s exports from Black Sea to the Gulf region can be routed through it and vice versa. 

It is entirely conceivable that China, which is the Gulf region’s number one trading partner, too will exploit the IMEC to maximum advantage. Chinese companies have a big presence in the Saudi railway sector for nearly two decades already. 

The Sinophobic Indian analysts are ecstatic that IMEC will put paid to BRI. They are clueless about the sheer depth and vastness of the two IMEC heavyweights’ — Saudi and Emirati — bilateral relations with China. Other than the US or India, no IMEC participant, including Israel, is inclined to take sides in the US-China confrontation. Why would they want to isolate China, which has so much to offer for their growth and development?  

Ukraine

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/11/ukraine-sitrep-high-losses-political-infighting-blocked-borders.html

The commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, does not have a war plan for 2024, and therefore must resign.

This was stated by Deputy head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, MP from Servant of the People Mariana Bezuglaya on her Facebook page, referring to a "non-public discussion" with the military.

"Yes, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not provide a plan for 2024. Neither big nor small, neither asymmetrical nor symmetrical. The military simply said that they need to take at least 20 thousand citizens a month, " she writes.

Ivan Katchanovski @I_Katchanovski - 0:35 UTC · Nov 27, 2023

Adviser of Zelenskyy: There is now "terrible shortage" of artillery shells & "huge shortage" of mines and military personnel on frontline. He heard "scary numbers" that average age in some brigades is 54 & that 3 people remain in some companies out of 110 at start of the war. https://youtu.be/MqRNWdqzF7E?si=6EnJEa25zcK-6p-4&t=196

Nato-Ukraine

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_220818.htm?selectedLocale=en

NATO continues to provide Ukraine with urgently needed non-lethal assistance. Together we are transforming the Comprehensive Assistance Package into a multi-year programme to help rebuild the Ukrainian security and defence sector and to support Ukraine’s deterrence and defence in the long term.

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  • This commment is unpublished.
    محسن · 6 months ago
    متاسفانه تا امروز فرصت شنيدنِ اين مبحث مهم و سخنرانیِ جامع را پيدا نکرده بودم. دوستی در خلالِ پرسش و پاسخ به معرفیِ کتابی در موردِ سياستِ عاقلانۀ چند دهه ای چين پرداخت. من کتاب را نخوانده ام امّا براساسِ معرفیِ کوتاهِ دوستِ موردنظر تا جايی که به داده های مطالعاتی و تجربیِ شخصيم برميگردد ارزيابیِ کتاب و ايضاً دوستمان به هيچوجه با واقعيِاتِ چين همخوانی ندارد و اگر چنانچه اين نوع ارزيابيها مضر و خطرناک نباشد دستِ کم باعث سر درگمیِ بيشتر و ضربه زدن به حقيقت ميگردد. قضاوتِ کنونی در بارۀ وقايعِ گذشته و تاريخی و درستی يا نادرستی سياست ها چندان کار دشواری نيست اما خطر آنجاست که قضاوتها براساس حدسيات و فاکتهای غيرواقعی باشد. در اين مورد خاص همينطور که رفقا بهمن و وحيد هم اشاره داشتند بحث بر سر خودنمايی و رقابتِ داشتنِ تسليحاتِ بيشتر نبود. اگر شوروی در مسيرِ توليدِ سلاح مدرن و تأثير گذار بر نمي آمد همان سالهایِ قبل از فروپاشی نابود شده بود و همراه با آن نيمی از جهانِ مستقل اما متکی به کمکهای شوروی ازبين رفته بود. امپرياليست ها در تمامِ طولِ حياتِ شوروی لحظه ای را برای ضربه زدن به آن از دست ندادند و همين خطر نابودی بود که شوروی را مجبور به تقويت نظامی جهتِ مقابله با آنان مي کرد. چين که خود تا اوايلِ دههً 70 با کمکِ شوروی سر پا بود و حقيقتأ بدونِ کمکِ آن امکانِ دوام در برابرِ امپرياليسم برايش مشکل بود، با چرخش و پشت کردن به شوروی و با اختراعِ تز ارتجاعیِ سه جهان عملاً در کنارِ آمريکا و امپرياليستهای ديگر قرار گرفت ولذا نه توان و نه قصدِ تقويتِ نظامی را نداشت. درست زمانی که شوروی نياز به کمک برای غلبه بر مشکلاتِ ناشی از فشارِ همه جانبۀ امپرياليسم داشت چين در کنارِ امپرياليسم در برابرِ شوروی قرار گرفت و متاسفانه نقشِ مؤثری در جهتِ ضعفِ بيشترِ شوروی داشت. کشورهايی چون يوگسلاوی و آلبانی نقدها و انتقادهايي به برخی سياست های شوروی داشتند ولی هرگز کنارِ آمريکا و بقيه در برابرِ شوروی قرار نگرفتند. پس اين ادعا که سياستهایِ چين عاقلانه تر و موفقيت آميزتر از شوروی در برابرِ امپرياليسم بوده است نادرست است. شنيده و خوانده ام که حتي ادعا ميشود که چين با سياستهايش غرب را فريب داده که موفقيتِ کنونی اش را رقم زده است. حتی اگر اين روايت صحيح باشد و چين چنين استراتژی داشته بوده است بازهم جهتگيری اش در برابر شوروی( در همه نقاطِ دنيا) و در کنارِ آمريکا قرار گرفتن به هيچوجه قابلِ توجيه و دفاع نيست. هم اکنون تئوری هایِ برگرفته شده از توصيه هایِ هنری کيسينجر مبنی بر نزديکی به چين برای انزوای روسيه(همچون زمانِ شوروی) تبليغ مي شود.

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