بهمن شفیق

۲۶ مرداد ۱۴۰۴

۱۷ اوت ۲۰۲۵

رسانه های ایران

https://www.tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1404/05/25/3377232/دستان-خالی-ترامپ-بعد-از-نشست-آلاسکا

تسنیم

همانطور که اوضاع بلافاصله پس از این حضور مشترک ترامپ و پوتین نشان می‌دهد، این اجلاس در انکوریج برای پوتین موفقیت‌آمیز بود، اما برای دونالد ترامپ اینطور نبود.

استقبال دوستانه‌ای که دونالد ترامپ روی فرش قرمز در انکوریج از ولادیمیر پوتین به عمل آورد، در حافظه تاریخ باقی خواهد ماند. شاید تصویری که به بهترین شکل این اجلاس را توصیف می‌کند، تصویر پوتین باشد که با رضایت در لیموزین زرهی سنگین رئیس جمهور ایالات متحده، لبخند می‌زند.

دونالد ترامپ پوتین را به صحنه جهانی بازگرداند، بدون اینکه بتواند در جنگ علیه اوکراین، هیچ امتیاز آشکاری از او بگیرد.

نور نیوز

https://nournews.ir/fa/news/239816/دیدار-ناموفق-یا-امتیازگیری-های-پنهان-پوتین؟

دیدار ناموفق یا امتیازگیری های پنهان پوتین؟

هرچند هنوز جزئیات روشنی از توافقات احتمالی دو طرف منتشر نشده، اما فضای عمومی بازتاب رسانه‌ای بیشتر بر نگرانی، تردید و حتی بدبینی نسبت به نتایج این دیدار استوار بوده است.

روزنامه واشنگتن پست با تمرکز بر انتخاب آلاسکا به‌عنوان محل دیدار، آن را «نمادی خطرناک» توصیف کرد. این روزنامه یادآور شد که آلاسکا تا اواخر قرن نوزدهم بخشی از امپراتوری روسیه بوده و سپس به ایالات متحده فروخته شد. از نگاه تحلیل‌گران، از جمله مایکل مک‌فول، این انتخاب حامل پیامی ضمنی است که می‌تواند به پوتین مشروعیت نمادین بدهد: «ترامپ پوتین را در بخشی از امپراتوری سابق روسیه می‌پذیرد.» این اقدام، به باور نویسندگان واشنگتن پست، ممکن است به‌سادگی تصویر انزوای سیاسی پوتین پس از حمله به اوکراین را کمرنگ کند و برای کرملین یک پیروزی تبلیغاتی قلمداد شود.

خبرگزاری آسوشیتدپرس بر جنبه دیگری از دیدار تمرکز کرد: غیبت اوکراین. در شرایطی که جنگ هنوز ادامه دارد، عدم حضور ولودیمیر زلنسکی در جلسه به‌شدت مورد انتقاد قرار گرفت. تحلیل‌گران غربی معتقدند این اقدام نقض صریح اصل جاافتاده دیپلماتیک «بدون اوکراین، درباره اوکراین تصمیم‌گیری نشود» است. به‌باور این رسانه، حذف اوکراین از میز مذاکرات نه‌تنها نوعی تحقیر برای کی‌یف محسوب می‌شود، بلکه نشان می‌دهد واشنگتن و مسکو تمایل دارند بدون در نظر گرفتن ذی‌نفع اصلی، به سازش یا تقسیم منافع بیندیشند.

شبکه ان دی تی وی با یادآوری نشست هلسینکی ۲۰۱۸، بار دیگر به سابقه ضعف ترامپ در برابر پوتین پرداخت.

روزنامه گاردین به لحن متناقض ترامپ در آستانه نشست پرداخت.

فایننشنال تایمز در یادداشتی تحلیلی نوشت که تیم ترامپ به‌ویژه در مرکز مطالعات بین‌المللی و امنیت (CSIS) نگران است رئیس‌جمهور آمریکا برای کسب دستاورد فوری و حتی جایزه نوبل صلح، حاضر به امتیازدهی‌های یک‌طرفه شود.

https://nournews.ir/fa/news/239889/واکنش-رهبران-اروپایی-به-ملاقات-ترامپ-و-پوتین-در-الاسکا

واکنش رهبران اروپایی به ملاقات ترامپ و پوتین در الاسکا

https://snn.ir/fa/news/1295426/قمار-ترامپ-با-پوتین-شکست-خورد

خبرگزاری دانشجو: فارن پالیسی تحلیل کرد؛

قمار ترامپ با پوتین شکست خورد

ترامپ بدون دریافت وعده‌ای قابل اتکا از پوتین، در برابر او لبخند زد؛ تنها اطمینانی که گرفت، تهدید ضمنی پوتین بود: در صورت ناکامی نشست، حمله به اوکراین ادامه خواهد یافت. این رویکرد نه‌تنها دستاوردی نداشت، بلکه پیامدهای دیپلماتیک جدی برای موقعیت آمریکا در سطح جهانی در پی داشت.

اما نشست آلاسکا، نه‌تنها نقطه روشنی در کارنامه او نبود، بلکه بار دیگر دیپلماسی بدون نقشه راه، بدون تیم مشورتی مقتدر، و بدون همراهی متحدان، شکست دیگری برای رئیس‌جمهوری بود که در پی اثبات خود به‌عنوان "هنرمند معامله" است.

https://snn.ir/fa/news/1295606/فون-در-لاین-و-رهبران-اروپایی-زلنسکی-را-در-دیدار-با-ترامپ-در-واشنگتن-همراهی-می%E2%80%8Cکنند

فون در لاین و رهبران اروپایی، زلنسکی را در دیدار با ترامپ در واشنگتن همراهی می‌کنند

https://snn.ir/fa/news/1295542/حمله-سناتور-آمریکایی-به-ترامپ-فروختن-اوکراین-جایزه-نوبل-ندارد

حمله سناتور آمریکایی به ترامپ: فروختن اوکراین جایزه نوبل ندارد

https://kayhan.ir/fa/news/316576/ترامپ-معادن-اوکراین-را-بالا-کشید-خاکش-را-به-روسیه-داد

کیهان: ترامپ معادن اوکراین را بالا کشید خاکش را به روسیه داد

نشست روز جمعه ترامپ و پوتین بر سر جنگ اوکراین بازتاب رسانه‌ای گسترده‌ای داشت. برخی این نشست را «هیاهو برای هیچ» لقب داده‌اند چرا که برخلاف پوشش گسترده رسانه‌ای، از «توافق برای پایان‌دادن به جنگ» خبری نبود و صرفاً توافق شد تا مذاکرات ادامه یابد. از دیدگاه ناظران، پوتین در این دیدار تلاش کرد بار دیگر سه محور اصلی سیاست روسیه در جنگ اوکراین، یعنی «تضمین امنیت مناطق اشغالی»، «مخالفت با عضویت کی‌یف در ناتو و اتحادیه اروپا»، و «لزوم تغییر در ساختار قدرت اوکراین» را مطرح کند و در مقابل، ترامپ برایش همین ژست رسانه‌ای و معرفی‌شدن به عنوان نامزد دریافت جایزه صلح نوبل کافی بود!

اما اظهارات ترامپ در نشستی که درباره اوکراین بود- و اجازه شرکت نماینده اوکراین در آن داده نشده بود- راجع به، لزوم گذشتن اوکراین از خیر سرزمین‌های از دست رفته‌اش در جنگ با روسیه، اوکراین را به بازنده اصلی این نشست، تبدیل کرد! تحقیر‌آمیز‌تر این که، ترامپ چندی پیش منابع معدنی اوکراین را هم با قراردادی تحمیلی تصاحب کرده بود و در این نشست حتی حاضر نشد از منافع اوکراین و متحدان اروپایی‌اش دفاع کند. آمریکا با پهن کردن فرش قرمز مقابل پوتین و بذل و بخشش خاک اوکراین به روسیه نشان داد تلاش چهار ساله غرب برای منزوی‌ساختن روسیه و شکست این کشور نیز، راه به جایی نبرده است. امری که با خشم اروپایی‌ها مواجه شد.

واکنش سران اروپا و ناتو به این نشست نشان می‌دهد، آنها نگران توافق پشت‌پرده ترامپ و پوتین بر سر سرنوشت اوکراین هستند. در همین رابطه شورای اروپا و ناتو در این بیانیه مشترک، بر حمایت کامل از اوکراین، تضمین‌های امنیتی قوی، ادامه فشار بر روسیه و مخالفت با هرگونه حق وتوی مسکو در مسیر عضویت اوکراین در اتحادیه اروپا و ناتو تأکید کردند. گزارش ایسنا، رهبران اروپایی در این بیانیه با بیان اینکه «هیچ محدودیتی نباید بر ارتش اوکراین یا همکاری آن با کشورهای ثالث اعمال شود... روسیه نمی‌تواند حق وتو در مسیر اوکراین به سمت اتحادیه اروپا و ناتو داشته باشد... همچنین تصمیم‌گیری درباره سرزمین اوکراین بر‌عهده خود این کشور است و مرزهای بین‌المللی نباید با زور تغییر کنند.»

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4gj9er0x0zo

It was a remarkable moment for Putin – a leader shunned by most Western nations since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. His international travel has since been largely limited to nations friendly to the Russian Federation, such as North Korea and Belarus.

That the Alaska summit happened at all was a victory for Putin. But this welcome would have surpassed the Kremlin's wildest dreams. In a short six months Putin has gone from being a pariah of the West to being welcomed on US soil like a partner and friend.

In his 25 years as Russian president, Putin has achieved complete control over the media, crushing media freedoms and replacing information with propaganda. Within Russia he doesn't often – if ever – come up against unfriendly reporters.

Yet it was only minutes after landing in Alaska that one journalist shouted in his direction: "Will you stop killing civilians?" If the question bothered him, he didn't show it, appearing instead to shrug and divert his gaze.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/alaska-summit-putin-trump/

"But it was a mistake for Trump to hold a summit without 'sherpas' having reached detailed agreement in advance — that is really not how things are usually done, and for good reason, as it makes it look as if Trump has given Putin an escape from diplomatic isolation from the West without getting anything solid in return."

‌Battlefield

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-war-2673885648/

Diplomacy Watch: Battlefield advantage will steer Alaska talks

Russia took 42.5 square miles of Ukraine’s Donetsk region on Tuesday, making its biggest advance in Ukraine since May 2024. Indeed, Russia took territory in one day that it normally would have taken in five or six days’ time.

Russia’s battlefield wins are “suggestive of deeper underlying weaknesses in the composition of Ukraine's force posture in the East, where we are beginning to see signs of a potential collapse of lines that are buckling under incessant Russian artillery and drone pressure and also Russian advances,” Episkopos stressed. “This is having a cumulative effect over time, to where Ukraine is gradually — but then at some point, suddenly — going to be unable to continue manning the front lines in the East.”

“That is the dynamic of where this war is headed, unless it's brought to an end, which is why it's so important on Friday to get to at least a roadmap for agreeing a ceasefire, as part of a larger framework deal for ending this war.”

https://ria.ru/20250810/putin-2034365361.html

At the meeting between Putin and Trump, there will be a third person who determines the terms of the peace agreement

Without detracting from the merits of the highly respected Sergey Lavrov and our entire diplomatic team, a gold sign should be screwed on the door of the Russian Foreign Ministry with the inscription: "The main Russian diplomat is the Russian army. Opening hours: around the clock".

UK's Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) reveals that the Russian military currently possesses "the most formidable anti-drone capabilities on Earth" and "has a wide range of specialized electronic warfare systems, modified small arms, and short-range air defense systems integrated at all levels of the Ground Forces." Conclusion: the Ukrainian drone miracle did not happen, and Russia's insignificant and laughable armed forces now have "countermeasures against drones that surpass anything NATO has."

The CEPA Center for European Policy Analysis (USA) unexpectedly found that "the Kremlin's military forces are growing much faster than most analysts expected," and the Russian army, already destroyed ten times by the proto-Ukrainians, is now " larger and stronger than it was before the war."

The Journal of Strategic Studies, ... admits that the Russian army has quickly and effectively "adapted to the transition from the strategy of "lightning victory" to a war of attrition" and if the conflict drags on, "the advantages on the side of the Russian Armed Forces will only grow". A small example: experts of the brain tank calculated that only in the field of artillery, the Russian Armed Forces now outnumber the APU in the ratio of 12 to one, and in some areas the ratio reaches 20 to one. Why did the cries of "war to the last Ukrainian" sound insincere?

The US Navy Analysis Center (CNA), in its recent and hot report "Russian concepts of the future war based on the lessons of the war in Ukraine," concludes that Baltic tigers are becoming convinced vegans before our eyes: "Despite the contradictory results of the Russian armed forces in this war, the Russian army remains extremely combat-ready and very dangerous. <…> If in the future it has a more limited set of strategic goals in another geographical region (for example, in the Baltic), and if it acts in the same way as in 2025, it may well be able to achieve its strategic goals in a possible conflict.

https://ria.ru/20250815/peregovory-2035397696.html

The negotiations have taken place: the result is in our favor, and Kiev is on the verge of surrender

But time has passed, and the British think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which at one time also diligently buried our army, now suddenly recognized that "the transition to a strong positional defense in the fall of 2022 was the wisest decision of the Russian military command."

From May to August alone, and only in the Pokrovsk area, the Russian VKS carried out more than 3,200 airstrikes, which is 30-32 pacifying FABs per day, and the softening massage goes on around the clock…

According to the same Institute for the Study of War, the Russian army liberated 110 square kilometers in just one day, August 12, the highest figure since the end of May 2024.

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2025/08/the-ukrainian-soldier-is-just-not-there.html

"The Ukrainian Soldier ... is just not there."

Only a few of the western defense analysts have seen this coming. One is Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting. He has good relation with many Ukrainian officers and has regularly visited units at the frontline.

It is worrying that Russia's territorial gains, especially in July, were quite significant and larger than in previous months. The Russians have advanced 10-12 km along several axes. This is something we haven't seen before. If there were any territorial conquests before, they were concentrated around one area. Now we have several areas where the front is starting to leak.

How many Russians are there now?

Some 650 thousand, of which some 40 thousand have arrived since January. The Russians are able to recover losses very quickly. The withdrawal of a company or battalion that has suffered losses of several tens of percent, and the restoration of its personnel takes a maximum of two weeks.

What are the main problems on the Ukrainian side?

[...] when it comes to the Ukrainian soldier, the biggest problem is that he's just... not there.

Over the past year, the Ukrainians have defended their positions using drones, artillery and infantry. However, there are currently so many Russian drones that Ukrainian units often refuse to use artillery, since unmanned vehicles are constantly circulating in the area of its deployment. In areas of the front where artillery nevertheless opens fire, a response in the form of Russian counter-battery fire occurs within one to two minutes, and over the next few minutes swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles appear in the area, which track and destroy the detected guns.

Could more help by the West make a difference here?

In my opinion, no.

Nixon Yalta

https://forumgeopolitica.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/Yalta-Conference-Agreement-Declaration-of-a-Liberated-Europe.pdf

Original Text

AGREEMENT REGARDING JAPAN

The leaders of the three great powers - the Soviet Union, the United States of America and Great Britain - have agreed that in two or three months after Germany has surrendered and the war in Europe is terminated, the Soviet Union shall enter into war against Japan on the side of the Allies on condition that:

1. The status quo in Outer Mongolia (the Mongolian People's Republic) shall be preserved.

2. The former rights of Russia violated by the treacherous attack of Japan in 1904 shall be restored, viz.:

(a) The southern part of Sakhalin as well as the islands adjacent to it shall be returned to the Soviet Union;

3. The Kurile Islands shall be handed over to the Soviet Union.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D_6LkyCGVEk

https://history.state.gov/milestones/1937-1945/yalta-conf#:~:text=the%20full%20notice.-,The%20Yalta%20Conference%2C%201945,war%20and%20the%20postwar%20world.

Initial reaction to the Yalta agreements was celebratory. Roosevelt and many other Americans viewed it as proof that the spirit of U.S.-Soviet wartime cooperation would carry over into the postwar period. This sentiment, however, was short lived. With the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt on April 12, 1945, Harry S. Truman became the thirty-third president of the United States. By the end of April, the new administration clashed with the Soviets over their influence in Eastern Europe, and over the United Nations. Alarmed at the perceived lack of cooperation on the part of the Soviets, many Americans began to criticize Roosevelt’s handling of the Yalta negotiations.

To this day, many of Roosevelt’s most vehement detractors accuse him of “handing over” Eastern Europe and Northeast Asia to the Soviet Union at Yalta despite the fact that the Soviets did make many substantial concessions.

https://www.britannica.com/event/Yalta-Conference

Britannica

After the agreements reached at Yalta were made public in 1946, they were harshly criticized in the United States. This was because, as events turned out, Stalin failed to keep his promise that free elections would be held in Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. Instead, communist governments were established in all those countries, noncommunist political parties were suppressed, and genuinely democratic elections were never held. At the time of the Yalta Conference, both Roosevelt and Churchill had trusted Stalin and believed that he would keep his word. Neither leader had suspected that Stalin intended that all the popular front governments in Europe would be taken over by communists. Roosevelt and Churchill were further inclined to assent to the Yalta agreements because they assumed, mistakenly as it turned out, that Soviet assistance would be sorely needed to defeat the Japanese in the Pacific and Manchuria.

Europe

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article689c32cc0fb2e02f82074e44/Ukraine-Gipfel-Liveticker-Es-gibt-Hoffnung-auf-Bewegung-sagt-Merz-nach-der-Videoschalte-mit-Selenskyj-und-Trump.html

Die Ukraine müsse mit am Tisch sitzen, wenn weiter verhandelt werde – bislang lehnt Russland dies ab.

Die Ukraine sei bereit, über Gebietsfragen zu verhandeln. Dabei müsse allerdings die sogenannte Kontaktlinie der Ausgangspunkt sei. Russland hatte gefordert, die ukrainische Armee müsse sich aus Gebieten im Donbass zurückziehen, die sie bislang weiter hält.

Merz führte weiter aus, es brauche für Kiew „robuste Sicherheitsgarantien“, auch müssten die ukrainischen Streitkräfte dazu imstande bleiben dürfen, ihr Land zu verteidigen.

Verhandlungen müssten zudem Teil einer gemeinsamen transatlantischen Strategie sein.

Es müsse Konsequenzen geben, falls das Treffen nicht erfolgreich verlaufe: „Gibt es in Alaska keine Bewegung auf russischer Seite, dann müssen die Vereinigten Staaten und Europa den Druck erhöhen“, führte Merz aus. Trump kenne diese Position und teile sie „sehr weitgehend“.

https://vz.ru/politics/2025/8/16/1353247.html

Alaska has caused a political frenzy in Europe

"We will continue to tighten sanctions and take broader economic measures to put pressure on Russia's military economy until a just and lasting peace is achieved," the statement said, following a phone call between European leaders and Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky.

The document was signed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, British Prime Minister Kyr Starmer, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and European Council President António Costa.

"Unfortunately, Trump has taken Putin's side," lamented Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Verkhovna Rada's Foreign Affairs Committee. "Trump's potential partnership with Putin is a very frightening prospect for us. The atmosphere at yesterday's summit was the exact opposite of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office," agreed his colleague Inna Sovsun.

"In general, this meeting was a litmus test for the shift from a postmodern paradigm to real politics. Putin and Trump have witnessed the emergence of a vibrant political process, replacing the unified governance through algorithms advocated by the European bureaucracy. Geopolitics has changed its genre, but Brussels has failed to notice," Martynov noted.

He recalled that after the Russia-US summit, an emergency meeting of COREPER, the committee of EU ambassadors, was convened, which plays an important role in the decision-making process of the European Union's leadership. "These are not European officials, but people who represent the national interests of their countries while sitting in Brussels. The fact that they have not provided any assessment of the situation speaks volumes," the speaker emphasized.

https://x.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1954625690621423961

Arnaud Bertrand

I did the research: there are very few examples - if any - in Europe’s millennia-old history of a military defeat against an external power where it wasn’t even at the table to negotiate the conditions for its future.

You’d probably need to go all the way back to the fall of Constantinople in 1453 to find Europeans having zero say in their own fate. And still, this was a somewhat “classic” military defeat where the victor simply dictated terms. At the time, there wasn't another external power negotiating with the Ottomans about how to carve up Byzantine territory - it was at least a straightforward conquest.

It’s therefore fair to say that, literally on a millennial scale, Europe's exclusion from negotiations about its own future in Alaska represents one of the most humiliating moments in European diplomatic history.

https://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2025-08/ukraine-krieg-erklaerung-eu-staaten-trilateraler-gipfel-usa-russland

EU-Staaten fordern Einbindung der Ukraine in Friedensgespräche

In einer gemeinsamen Erklärung haben acht europäische Regierungschefs angekündigt, auf einen trilateralen Gipfel mit US-Präsident Donald Trump, Russlands Präsident Wladimir Putin und dem ukrainischen Präsidenten Selenskyj hinarbeiten zu wollen. Zuvor hatten sich bereits Trump und Putin in Alaska zu bilateralen Gesprächen getroffen, die international als ergebnislos aufgefasst wurden.

Zangezur

https://svpressa.ru/politic/article/477157/

The Zangezur trap. Turkey realized that it had fallen into an American trap

Kellog

https://meduza.io/en/news/2025/07/14/u-s-special-envoy-keith-kellogg-arrives-in-kyiv

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/05/politics/witkoff-russia-trump-sanctions-threat