بهمن شفیق
۱۴ اسفند ۱۴۰۴
۵ مارس ۲۰۲۶
https://x.com/ME_Observer_/status/2029084537389555939
Prep times vary by system. Solid-fuel missiles like the Fateh-110 and Kheibar Shekan take 10-20 minutes. Liquid-fueled long-range variants like the Shahab-3 and Ghadr take 30-60 minutes due to on-site fueling requirements. The longer the range, the longer the prep, and Iran has consistently demonstrated willingness to use them regardless.
The strongest evidence isn't theoretical. It's Lebanon 2024. Israel surveilled 4,500 km² of Hezbollah territory for 24 years without interruption, drones, satellites, spies, mapping that geography to the last grain. Hezbollah still generated 100-200 projectiles every single day for 66 straight days through an estimated 8 to 15 actual launch events, made possible by modified systems carrying 20-30 rockets per vehicle. A handful of vehicles. Every day. Total surveillance couldn't stop them.
That theater was 0.002% of Iran's total area. And here is where the comparison becomes arithmetically decisive. Iran isn't running a border harassment campaign. They are sustaining a strategic missile campaign simultaneously against Israel, Gulf states, and U.S. bases in Iraq across three completely different geographic axes. That requires an estimated 50 to 150 TEL activations per day dispersed across 1.648 million km² of mountainous interior.
Israel could not interdict 8 to 15 daily launch events in 4,500 km² with 24 years of preparation and aircraft orbiting next door. CENTCOM must interdict 50 to 150 TEL activations per day across a territory 366 times larger, with strike aircraft transiting 30 to 60 minutes to reach their targets, and a drone fleet being attrited at roughly 30 platforms in the first 4 days of operations.
https://ria.ru/20260304/katastrofa-2078340963.html
It is vital for Israelis to smash Iran to pieces right now, under Trump. The fact is that public opinion in the United States is rapidly changing regarding Israel: recent polls show a “threatening decline in support in the United States among Democrats, young people, and now independent voters,” and now, amid the split in the MAGA movement, support is also plummeting among Republicans. Now, for the first time in history, more Americans sympathize with the Palestinians (41%) than with the Israelis (36%), while just a year ago, the ratio was 46:33 in favor of Israel. There has been a shift among "independent" voters: now, 41% support the Palestinians, while 30% support the Israelis (compared to 42:34 in favor of Israel a year ago). Only 32% of Americans approve of Israel's military actions in Gaza, marking a historic low.
What was promised to Trump for supporting Israel against Iran?
They promised hundreds of billions, or rather, trillions of dollars, which Trump and his family would be able to earn from the "restoration of Gaza." The project is beautiful, called "Gaza Riviera," and was designed specifically for Trump: 180 skyscrapers, 200 hotels, a port, an airport, artificial islands, coastal complexes, "smart cities" for the wealthy, electric vehicle factories, and data centers.
The money is from the Gulf monarchies. The protection of the rich is Israel. The management of this beauty will be the fund of Trump's son-in-law, the same Kouchner, called "Affinity Group". The return on investment (ROI) is 400% in ten years.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2026/03/iran-war-more-on-why-us-israel-success-impossible-as-israel-and-us-operations-take-more-hits-trump-proposes-unhinged-strait-of-hormuz-escort-scheme-western-media-misinforming-public.html
https://sonar21.com/the-us-missile-defense-shortage-is-worse-than-imagined/
Starting in 2015 and continuing through 2020, the US produced between 100 — 300 a year. Let’s use the higher figure… That is 1,800 PAC-3 MSE. In the succeeding four year period, the US produced an estimated 2,200 PAC-3 MSEs (i.e., 500+ per year). In 2025 the US boosted production to 620. Total PAC-3 MSEs produced since 2015 is 4,620.
The US Army has 15 Patriot battalions total (14 fully available as of mid-2025, with one in modernization), each typically consisting of 4–6 batteries (a battery is the firing unit with launchers/radars). A Patriot battery (also called a fire unit) typically includes 6–8 launchers (Launching Stations), though configurations vary by operator, mission, and launcher type (e.g., M903 for modern U.S. systems). If we assume that the four Patriot battalions have four batteries each, with 72 missiles per battery, we get a total of 1,152 missiles that must be subtracted from the maximum possible number deployed to the Middle East — i.e., the actual inventory, using the most conservative estimate, is 1,221. That means the US inventory of PAC-3 MSE missiles, using the assumptions above that Iran is firing 60 ballistic missiles per day, the supply of missiles will run out in 10 days. This is why I assert that Donald Trump is out of touch with reality.
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/p/the-air-power-illusion
Prof Robert Pape
The record tells a harder story. Strategic bombing has destroyed armies and shattered cities, but it has not by itself toppled a functioning regime. Political collapse happens when ruling coalitions fracture under internal pressure, not when buildings burn.
Bombs can devastate states. They do not, by themselves, disintegrate regimes.
Regimes Fall When Insiders Defect
https://ria.ru/20260305/tramp-2078598884.html
Petr Akopov
Yes, this is essentially the only option for escalating the war that Trump has: to play the Kurdish card…. At this moment, the idea of using the Kurds to intervene in Iran has emerged. Everyone, including a large part of the Kurds, understands that this is an absolute gamble, but it may be attempted if Trump believes that this is his last chance to defeat Iran.
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