بهمن شفیق

۲۶ فروردین ۱۴۰۳

۱۴ آوریل ۲۰۲۴

CNN Janet Yellen

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/04/business/yellen-us-china-economic-relations-hnk-intl/index.html

“Overcapacity isn’t a new problem, but it has intensified, and we’re seeing emerging risks in new sectors,” Yellen told a group of China-based American executives. “This can undercut the business of American firms and workers, as well as of firms around the world, including in India and Mexico.”

Last month, on a visit to a solar panel factory in Georgia, Yellen said China’s excess capacity was distorting prices and production patterns and hurting American firms and workers. She added that China was following its old practice of flooding the global markets with cheap, state-subsidized steel and aluminum.

US Growth

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-gdp-grew-334-billion-q4-growth-cost-834-billion-debt

US GDP "Grew" $334 Billion In Q4.... That Growth Cost $834 Billion In Debt

Moments ago, two things happened: Biden's Bureau of Economic Analysis released the first revision of Q4 2023 GDP, a number which is completely irrelevant as it looks at the state of the US economy more than 2 months ago as the calendar is now just weeks away from the start of Q2 2024... and bitcoin soared above $60,000, now less than $10k away from a record high. While it may not be immediately obvious, the two events are linked. Let us explain.

Well, a closer look at the data revealed something stunning: a quick look at the increase in nominal GDP, which rose from $27.61 trillion in Q3 to $27.94 trillion in Q4, shows that the US economy increased some $334.5 billion in absolute nominal dollar terms.

But where did this growth come from? Why debt of course, and a lot of it. For the answer how much debt, we go to the US Treasury's Debt to the penny website, where we find that debt on Sept 30, 2023 was $33,167,334,044,723.16 and debt on Dec 31, 2023 was $34,001,493,655,565.48.

In other words, it cost $834.2 billion in debt during Q3 to grow the US economy by $334.5 billion, or exactly $2.5 in debt for every $1 in GDP "growth."

Robotic Report 2023

https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/world-robotics-2023-report-asia-ahead-of-europe-and-the-americas

China is by far the world´s largest market. In 2022, annual installations of 290,258 units replaced the previous record of 2021 by growth of 5%. This latest gain is remarkable since it even tops the 2021 result that was a 57% jump compared to 2020. To serve this dynamic market, domestic and international robot suppliers have established production plants in China and continuously increased capacity. On average, annual robot installations have grown by 13% each year (2017-2022).

Japan were up by 9% to 50,413 units

Republic of Korea rose by 1% - installations reached 31,716 units

European Union remains the world´s second largest market (70,781 units; +5%) in 2022

United Kingdom, industrial robot installations were up by 3% to 2,534 units

USA, installations were 10% to 39,576 units, Canada 3200

Total West + Korea+ : 198,000

Total West + India 204,000

Xiaomi Car

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/one-car-every-76-seconds-inside-xiaomi-s-smart-super-factory-231911.html

The SU7 is the first car that smartphone manufacturer Xiaomi has unveiled. It happened on March 28, and the model has already entered production. Xiaomi builds the sedan at the Xiaomi Super Factory in Beijing, China.

The brand's founder, chairman, and CEO, Lei Jun, disclosed that the factory can build 40 cars per hour, which means that a new Xiaomi SU7 will roll off the production line every 76 seconds.

The high pace is due to the highly automated production line and advanced smart techniques involved. More than 700 robots reportedly operate in the factory. They carry out tasks such as installation, inspection, and transportation.

Twenty employees benefit from the assistance of 381 robots in the body shop, with eight robots per workstation, four on each side of the car. Robotic arms handle the doors, set them in place, tighten bolts, and adjust hinges.

IMEC Corridor

https://www.indianpunchline.com/india-middle-east-europe-economic-corridor-is-a-geopolitical-pipe-dream/

India-Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor is a geopolitical pipe dream

In the arid land of the Biden presidency’s foreign policy, which posterity will remember largely for the US’ entrapment of Ukraine in a fratricidal strife of Slavic peoples, the White House can claim an “achievement.”

The Biden Administration is conjuring up the Abraham Accord by the incantation of a Saudi-Israeli tango.

In geopolitical terms, the US is interfering with the regional reconciliation under way — Saudi-Iranian, Saudi-Turkish, Syria’s return to Arab family, Lebanon — by herding its traditional allies to instead bond with Israel.

Slow down the Gulf region’s gravitation toward Eurasian integration and BRICS.

Isolate Egypt, Iran and Turkey who are increasingly aligned with Russia.

Make Haifa Port viable by generating business and making it a transportation hub between West Asia and Europe.

Strengthen the Israel-Greece axis in East Mediterranean and link it with Europe’s energy security and provide underpinning for NATO at a juncture when Turkey is asserting its strategic autonomy.

Reduce the dependence on Suez Canal as the littoral states of the Red Sea — Yemen, Somalia, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Sudan — are no longer willing to subserve western interests.

However, the main challenge for IMEC lies somewhere else on the practical side. There are “missing links” in the railway systems in the Gulf region. Thus, out of the total rail length of 2915 kms stretching from Fujairah Port (UAE) to Haifa (Israel), there are missing portions close to 1100 kms. Again, the proposed 2565 km long rail route from Jebel Ali Port to Haifa has a missing link of 745 kms. As regards the 2449 km long rail route from Abu Dhabi Port to Haifa, about 630 kms are yet to be built. Similarly, out of the 2149 km long route from Dammam Port to Haifa (via Haradh), 290 kms is yet to be constructed; the 1809 long rail route from Ras Al Khair Port to Haifa (via Buraydh) has a missing link of some 270 kms.

All in all, it seems, around 3035 kms of railway lines need to be built. That’s no small matter. It adds up to something like the distance from Delhi to Thiruvananthapuram. Who else but Chinese companies can undertake such a daunting task in a foreseeable future?

Hamas, Jan 2024

https://consortiumnews.com/2024/01/30/asad-abukhalil-hamas-official-account/

The new leader of Hamas, Yahda Sinwar, is causing a drastic change in the role, practice, and effectiveness of Hamas. Just like Nasrallah, Sinwar began to leave his mark soon after assuming leadership in 2017.

He is not a wheeler-dealer like Khalid Mishal, the former Hamas leader, and avoids inter-Arab regime politics and conflicts. He also is a firm believer in the efficacy of the regional axis of resistance and puts that to great effect in how he husbands the movement’s military resources.

https://static.poder360.com.br/2024/01/Hamas-documento-guerra-Gaza-21jan2024.pdf

we remind that the Jewish problem in essence was a European problem, while the Arab and Islamic environment was – across history – a safe haven to the Jewish people and to other peoples of other beliefs and ethnicities. The Arab and Islamic environment was an example to co-existence, cultural interaction and religious freedoms.

We call upon the free peoples across the world, especially those nations who were colonized and realize the suffering of the Palestinian people, to take serious and effective positions against the double standard policies adopted by powers\countries that back the Israeli occupation. We call on these nations to initiate a global solidarity movement with the Palestinian people and to emphasize the values of justice and equality and the right of the peoples to live in freedom and dignity.

شرق

اما مسئله این است که اسرائیل امروز در موقعیتی قرار دارد که اصلا قابل مقایسه با موقعیت آمریکا در دی 1398 نیست. اسرائیل ممکن است حتی یک حمله محدود را هم به بهانه‌ای برای گسترش جنگ تبدیل کند؛ با این فرض که در صورت یک جنگ گسترده آمریکا حتما به کمکش خواهد شتافت. تا آنجا که به ایران مربوط می‌شود، مقامات ما علاوه بر توجه به شرایط جهانی و منطقه‌ای، ناچارند شرایط سیاسی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی در داخل کشور را نیز در معادله وارد کنند و در نظر بگیرند که تجربیات تاریخی نشان داده انعکاس جنگ خارجی معلوم نیست همیشه آن‌گونه که انتظار می‌رود، الزاما موجب اتحاد بیشتر در داخل ‌شود.

https://www.sharghdaily.com/بخش-سرمقاله-243/925704-جنگ-محدود-یا-جنگ-تمام-عیار

سؤال روزبه:

«سلام، رفقا.

بنده با دقت متن یک و دو زدن یا نزدن را مطالعه کردم. برداشت خودم و نقدم را خدمتتان میگویم. بحث کلی متن این است:

اسرائیل در نقطه‌ی ضعف استراتژیک به لحاظ تاریخی و جهانی قرار دارد. از این رو میتوان آن را با صبری استراتژیک شکست داد. البته که صبری فعال اما همچنان بدون جنگی همه‌جانبه. اما ج.ا به دلیل فشار خورنده‌ی نیروهای زن زندگی ناچار است رفتار استراتژیک را با پاسخی فعال در میدان جایگزین سازد، در غیر این صورت پایه‌های مردمی و ایدئولوژیک آن سرخورده شده و نیروهای روحیه گرفته‌ی زن زندگی ممکن است حمله‌ی دیگری را تدارک ببینند.

من با توصیف شما از صحنه موافقت عمومی دارم اما نتیجه گیری شما در باب ضرورت‌های تاریخی و عملی برای مواجهه با اسرائیل برای ج.ا به نظرم به علت لحاظ نکردن یک عامل دم دستی درست نیست. شما اسرائیل که یکسوی ماجراست را موجودی فرض کرده‌اید که هیچ عاملیتی از خود ندارد و نمیتواند هنگامی که خود را در معرض نابودی میبیند دست به جنگی هولناک بر سر مرگ و زندگی بزند (و این اتفاق بویژه در متن دوم می‌افتد) اگر این فرض را کنار بگذارید آنگاه حتی بدون وجود «موریانه‌ها» هم ج.ا ناچار است مقابله‌ای جهت ایجاد بازدارندگی انجام دهد که صد البته ممکن است به جنگ منجر شود.

پس من گمان میکنم که باید علت آنچه که ج.ا به عنوان صبر استراتژیک عنوان میکند و از سوی اپوزوسیون به ضعف برداشت میشود را جای دیگری جست.

البته نه اینکه با داد و قال اپوزوسیون موافق باشم نه، آن‌ها اغراق میکنند اما در نسبت دادن ضعف به ج.ا از سویشان حقیقتی نهفته است. که باید توضیح داده شود.»