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بهمن شفیق
اول اسفند ۱۴۰۲
۲۰ فوریه ۲۰۲۴
Ukraine
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4467823-the-idea-of-total-ukrainian-victory-is-delusional/
“As dogs return to their vomit, so fools repeat their folly. You see those who are wise in their own eyes? There is more hope for fools than for them.” Invaluable because, in connection with the Russia-Ukraine War, the passage powerfully illuminates the current debate about Ukraine’s future strategic prospects.
The past few months have witnessed the dog returning to its vomit in the form of any number of efforts to once again make the case that Ukraine still has a path to total victory in its war against Russia. In professional journals, on influential websites and across the full spectrum of media outlets, observers, analysts and pundits alike continue to inform us that, yes, there is a way for Ukraine to prevail over Russia, expelling the latter from all of its territory, including Crimea.
In short, Russia is winning the war and there is little to suggest that any foreseeable political, economic, tactical or technological developments are likely to alter that fundamental reality. So why are we seeing arguments about an ultimate Ukrainian battlefield triumph, in the face of all the devastatingly contradictory evidence?
Davos
https://darkfutura.substack.com/p/cracks-begin-to-show-at-davos
Von der Lyen Misinformation and Disinformation
What if Ukraine Loses?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/davos-admits-possibility-ukraine-defeat-claims-putin-will-target-eu-next
Turn to right
https://www.wsj.com/articles/davos-turns-gently-to-the-right-elites-grasp-statism-fails-and-the-world-needs-america-9033dd20
Since the financial crisis of 2008-09, the “global conversations” that take place among business, political and social leaders at the World Economic Forum each year have trended left. Elite Western opinion seemed destined to move toward more faith in state planning and less in the power of markets.
Great Reset, Clean-energy-stocks
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-12805397/Woke-capitalism-comeuppance-invest-ESG-asset-5-trillion-Republican-backlash-wind-solar-stocks.html
Global investments in trendy sustainability assets shrank by nearly $5 trillion over two years, researchers say, as US and other financiers soured on investments seen as risky and opaque.
In its biannual assessment, the Global Sustainable Investment Alliance (GSIA) said on Wednesday that investors had $30.3 trillion in sustainable assets in 2022, down from $35.3 trillion in 2020.
In the US, where Republicans have railed against ESG funds, which push for environmental, social, and governance benefits, such assets plunged from more than $17 trillion to just $8.4 trillion over the same period.
In the rest of the world, ESG-related assets are still growing, according to GSIA, which reports on the market every two years.
Sustainable investments rose more than 20 percent in Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand between 2020 and 2022, the alliance said.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-29/clean-energy-stocks-30-billion-dive-exposes-biden-s-climate-law-hurdles
The result is a $30 billion collapse in US clean energy stocks in the last six months—a market many investors expected to flourish in the aftermath of the law's passage. Few industries have been unscathed by soaring interest rates, but perhaps none has been harder hit than renewable energy
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/03/oil-companies-bring-in-200-billion-in-profits-in-2022.html#:~:text=Oil%20companies%20pulled%20in%20record,consumer%20advocates%20and%20political%20leaders.
Oil companies pulled in record profits in 2022, as oil prices skyrocketed. Revenues for the biggest integrated European and American oil companies nearly doubled during 2021. Profits soared.
Oil companies hit with backlash after bringing in $200 billion in profits last year
https://thenextrecession.wordpress.com/2024/01/30/why-did-the-us-avoid-a-recession-in-2023/
https://unherd.com/newsroom/goodbye-to-davos-and-good-riddance/
Today it’s not globalist smoothies like Emmanuel Macron but rough and ready anti-globalists who are elbowing their way to prominence. The rebellion that started with the French gilets jaunes in 2018 has metastasised and spread to other countries. In the US even educated voters, as well as minorities, are discovering a greater affinity for Donald Trump, who for all his significant flaws is broadly attuned to the popular mood.
https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-i-learned-davos-future-democracy-secure-208938
Kevin Roberts, Heritage Foundation
The reason I am confident about the future of democracy is because these elites are profoundly unimpressive. For seventy-two hours, I watched speakers who supposed themselves to be the most powerful people in the world fret about a “trust” they knew they’d lost and wouldn’t get back. They represented multinational companies and NGOs—and had nice titles like “Undersecretary,” “Co-chairman,” and “Chief Sustainability Officer.” But few had started a successful company, taken a real risk, or even won an election. These were the managerial elite—the mediocre technocrats who held the real power in Communist and leftist regimes alike.
And I am not the only one to realize the emperor has no clothes. Around the world, and in America in particular, more and more people are seeing through the façade. We know the Davoisie don’t want to “rebuild trust”—they want to control our lives. And more importantly, we know they only have as much power as we give them.
They’re old. They’re tired. They’re scared. And they should be. Their time is up. That’s what I told them, right to their faces.
In 2024, our world will not end, but the decadent world of Davos will collapse. They maintain power as long as their lies are affirmed and their surrogates elected. If “We the People” wake up and simply change course, the game is up.
Atlantic Council
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/inflection-points/davos-dispatch-the-case-for-optimism-amid-global-upheaval/
Georgieva reminded a select group of global political, business, and civil society leaders of Keynes’ words from a 1930 essay, written against the backdrop of the Great Depression, the rise of communism and fascism, and national and international despair (the meeting was off-record, but Georgieva approved this to be shared publicly):
“I predict that both of the two opposed errors of pessimism which now make so much noise in the world will be proved wrong over time: the pessimism of the revolutionaries who think that things are so bad that nothing can save us but violent change, and the pessimism of the reactionaries who consider the balance of our economic and social life so precarious that we must risk no experiments.”
All over town, US, European, and Ukrainian officials pushed back on the narrative that Ukraine wasn’t making progress and Putin was gaining.
Carlson – Putin
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-02-11/zelenskys-former-advisor-tuckers-interview-reveals-putins-becoming-more-formidable
Arestovich:
Putin is completely adequate. He understands what he is doing very well and is in good physical, mental and emotional shape. Hello to those who buried him a year ago.
Putin sets out a coherent system of views that he himself believes in (hello, jokes about the Merovingians and Ladoga).
Putin is psychologically increasingly getting rid of his pro-Western orientation - the only thing that was holding him back from within.
Oh, this is a mythology divorced from real history!.
So what if, in view of this mythology, he takes completely material actions?
“An idea, taking possession of the masses, becomes a material force”--remember that?
A specific mythology has taken hold of the masses and forty thousand volunteers come to Russian military registration and enlistment offices every month.
And they are not going to stop.
And how many volunteers come to our military registration and enlistment offices every month, dear real historians?
Ahh?
What kind of true stories do we tell if our “volunteers” have to be grabbed by force on the street?
And what stories does the West tell that it cannot collectively produce a million shells a year, in a situation where North Korea produces one and a half?
Putin will not stop.
He will carry out his tasks, which are dictated to him by the picture of the world, to the end.
Moreover, judging by his statements, he is improving in his picture of the world, in the sense of acquiring more and more motivation.
Military
Munition France
https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/fear-and-loathing-in-munich/
Where it counts: While Brussels is abuzz with talk about rearming, the bloc is falling short on its commitment to deliver ammo to Ukraine. That’s partly by choice.
FRANCE DIGS IN ON ‘BUY EUROPEAN’: While the bloc ramps up shell production, it could seek to alleviate Ukraine’s immediate shortage by using EU money to jointly purchase ammo on the global market.
Non: Yet, according to three EU diplomats, a small group of countries led by France is blocking attempts to use EU money for buying shells from outside of the bloc. The reason? European arms manufacturers need orders to justify ramping up their production.
How it went down: Earlier this week at a meeting of the Political and Security Committee, a majority of EU countries was in favor of allowing EU money to be used to buy non-EU produced shells as an emergency measure to help Ukraine, the diplomats told Playbook. But France, Greece and Cyprus opposed the effort, the diplomats said.
Heritage Foundation Military Strength Report
https://www.heritage.org/press/heritage-foundation-unveils-10th-annual-index-military-strength
The Index gives each service a “capacity,” “capability,” “readiness,” and “overall” rating on the following scale: very weak, weak, marginal, strong, or very strong.
Army: “Marginal.”
Navy: “Weak.”
Air Force: “Very Weak.”
Marine Corps: “Strong.”
Space Force: “Marginal.”
Nuclear Capabilities: “Marginal.”
World without Nato
https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2024/02/17/a_world_without_nato_1012522.html
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine does not affect a vital national security interest of the United States. Meanwhile, there is a gathering storm in the western Pacific that does affect a vital national security interest of the United States. Our most important alliances today are in the Indo-Pacfic (Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and hopefully India), not in Europe. NATO accomplished it mission. It was never meant to be a permanent or eternal alliance. Lord Palmerston and George Washington were right.
Munich:
MSI 2023
https://strategic-culture.su/news/2023/02/24/nato-powers-intensify-offensive-against-russia-after-munich-security-conference/
French President Emmanuel Macron called for more military aid to force Russia to the negotiating table, that is, to impose a peace of victory on the country. “It is imperative that we intensify our support and efforts” to enable Ukrainians to engage in a “counteroffensive,” he said. “The coming weeks and months are crucial. France is ready for an even longer conflict. Now is not the time for dialogue.”
Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Poland was ready to deliver fighter jets to Ukraine together with other countries. A prerequisite for such a move is a “NATO decision,” he added.
The German government in particular, which has long been officially portrayed as restrained, is now at the forefront of the war offensive against Russia. In their speeches, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius and Chancellor Olaf Scholz boasted of German military support for Ukraine and demanded more support from the “partners” for the formation of a tank army against Russia.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034
Putin 2007
MSC 2024: Lose-Lose?
https://www.dw.com/en/global-security-in-2024-migration-more-critical-than-russia/a-68217835
But in the current survey — for which the MSC questioned 12,000 people in the G7 countries, as well as Brazil, India, China and South Africa — "migration through war and climate change" is now seen as even more important than the prospect of an aggressive Russia. It appears those surveyed in October and November 2023 have grown accustomed to the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Entitled "Lose-Lose?" the new MSC report claims that everyone is losing out in the current global situation.
According to the survey, the risk perception of a military conflict in the Indo-Pacific between China and Taiwan has risen sharply. Fear of an increasingly self-confident China has made a big leap — especially in Japan, followed by India, the US, Germany and France.
In the G7 countries (Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Japan, Canada and the US), "large segments of the populations[...] believe their countries will be less secure and wealthy in 10 years' time," writes Heusgen. An analysis of the survey shows that people in the G7 countries expect China and countries in the Global South to increase their power and influence, with China benefiting at the expense of the other nations.
https://brusselssignal.eu/2024/02/delusions-on-display-the-emptiness-of-the-wests-strategic-thinking-will-be-on-full-show-at-the-2024-munich-security-conference/
The most infamous MSC edition in this regard was that of 2018, whose report inveighed against the “illiberal understanding of Western civilisation, based on history, culture, and religion instead of liberal values and democratic achievements.” Here was the perfect expression of the Davosian view of the world, where only the progressive “liberal values and democratic achievements” stand on the side of righteousness, and where to understand ourselves in terms of our own history, culture and religion has now become a sign of regressive “illiberalism” that must be condemned.
In other words, the logic of the MSC’s report is that the West should let its guard down for the sake of more lucrative business with the autocracies, so that Western governments would have more money left available to give out to the Global South. The report even goes on to state, with breathtaking insolence, that “de-risking from China should go hand in hand with redirecting investment toward Africa and other low-income countries”. It is not often that we are treated to quite such brazen evidence that globalism is and has always been a socialistic redistribution project on a planetary scale.
The MSC 2024 report reflects the mindset of a Western strategic community that, at best, has been overtaken by events. This is the generation that matured intellectually in the post-Cold War “end of history” era of hyper-globalisation, “soft power” and liberal internationalism. It has a hard time accepting the very hard and uncomfortable truths and imperatives of the resumption of great-power competition in the world system, let alone adapting to the reality of what it takes to win in this kind of environment.
A world of competing power-blocks does not fit with their instincts, a withdrawal from the hallowed ideal of a happy global society where all countries are “developed” shocks their conscience, and switching to an aggressive zero-sum game to defeat or disable your enemies before they can do the same to you, is anathema in their books.
Tech Firms and MSC
https://www.politico.eu/article/war-drones-technology-arms-industry-munich-security-conference-2024/
In the past, military researchers pioneered tech ranging from jet engines to duct tape and the internet that later found civilian uses. Now the process has turned full-circle: Generals are shopping for tech developed by civilian companies.
When security officials in 2020 were grappling with countering disinformation campaigns from Russia, Iran and elsewhere, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg was a top speaker addressing an audience on how Facebook policed safety and security.
In 2023 both Google and Microsoft went all-in with public affairs to display how they had supported Ukraine in its war with Russia, including by sharing cyber intelligence.
This weekend, Kent Walker, Google’s president for global affairs, will schmooze with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg and arms-maker Rheinmetall’s CEO Armin Papperger. Microsoft, Meta and others are sending PR battalions to work the corridors of the hotel.
Google and Amazon both faced internal uproar in past years, with staffers openly protesting projects like Project Maven and Project Nimbus for defense services in the U.S. and Israel. Others, like ClearView AI and Palantir, have come under intense public scrutiny for their handling of personal data.
In some cases — and in cyberdefense in particular — firms like Microsoft and Google have taken on a role that resembles almost that of an intelligence agency.
“We've seen in Ukraine how big the role is of big tech companies. You can like it or not. But it's a fact of life,” said NATO’s van Weel. “We should be happy that they're based in Western democracies and not in China.”
Election AI
https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/digital-governance/how-to-protect-elections-in-the-age-of-ai
A number of major tech companies, including Microsoft, signed an accord at the Munich Security Conference on Friday to help thwart and combat AI-related election interference.
“It's all about trying to put ourselves in a position, not to solve this problem completely, I don't think that's possible, but to manage this new reality in a way that will make a difference,” says Smith. The Microsoft president says the accord brings the tech sector together to preserve the authenticity of content, including by working to detect deepfakes and providing candidates with a mechanism to report any that are created about them.
Navalny
https://johnhelmer.net/what-happened-to-alexei-navalny-this-time-round/
The innuendo of murder does not (repeat not) appear in the statements by the French, German and British leaders.
https://gilbertdoctorow.com/2024/02/18/after-trt-world-failed-to-post-my-interview-on-the-death-of-navalny/
I took especial pleasure in seeing that the fraudulent ‘president in exile’ of Belarus Tikhanovskaya got something like 95 views for her remarks on Navalny.
https://www.merkur.de/politik/sicherheitskonferenz-putin-kreml-nawalny-tod-muenchner-zr-92838421.html
Gaza
https://consortiumnews.com/2024/02/14/asad-abukhhalil-arabs-divided-on-icj-ruling/
But this was South Africa which, given its own record of human rights adherence since the end of apartheid, and high standards of democracy and equality embedded in the South African constitution, has emerged as a moral leader not only of developing countries but of the world. South Africa is a moral superpower, while the U.S. has been reduced to a mere bully.
South Africa now leads the “Free World” and not the U.S., NATO and its coalition of former colonial powers. South Africa is the new superpower, without nuclear weapons. Its soft power is not the same as America’s, which camouflages naked aggression and the subjugation of other countries.
Outlook
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/everything-going-wrong-deep-state-martin-armstrong-warns-thats-what-makes-them-so
