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بهمن شفیق
25 خرداد 1401
15 ژوئن 2023
Economic output
https://radiosputnik.ria.ru/20230608/evrozona-1876951537.html
According to the European statistical office Eurostat, in the first quarter of this year, GDP in the euro area decreased by 0.1%. This was preceded by a similar contraction in GDP in the fourth quarter of 2022. Two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction are a sign of a recession, " the article says.
https://tass.ru/armiya-i-opk/18000647
Putin
Defense production in Russia increased 2.7 times over the year, and in the most popular areas - 10 times. Now " dozens, hundreds of private enterprises that have never had anything to do with the military-industrial complex have joined this work."
https://test.rtde.live/kurzclips/video/172585-und-nachts-scheint-keine-sonne/
Habeck Industrie abstellen
Brics Macron Saudi, Swing states
https://tomluongo.me/2023/05/23/no-truce-with-the-heartland/
They threw Viktor Yanukovich out of power and Russia took Crimea from them. So, their ‘shock and awe’ then was to throw an epic temper tantrum crashing the price of oil from $125 to $25 per barrel.
This was the first instance of the “Ruble to Rubble” campaign. It didn’t work then. In fact, it set Russia and the world on the path it’s on today. There’s a direct throughline from 2014 to today, not just on the ground but in the financial markets and the politics of the rest of Eastern Europe — The Heartland.
the fight for control over Pakistan is actually more important than Ukraine. Because Pakistan represents the East-West corridor tying the World Island together. While Ukraine is the key to breaking up Russia to destroy the North-South axis.
That’s why Sykes-Picot left us with a Middle East in tribal conflict. Israel only made things there worse. Pakistan was created as anti-India and Ukraine was split off from the USSR in such a way as to ensure we would be exactly where we are today.
All because some imperial-minded Europeans can’t bring themselves to share the world with brown people.
https://strategic-culture.org/news/2023/06/10/the-hegemon-will-go-full-hybrid-war-against-brics/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/06/geopolitics-global-south-middle-powers-swing-states-india-brazil-turkey-indonesia-saudi-arabia-south-africa/
Changing the course
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/analysis-of-kofman-lees-urgent-new?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Michael Kofman and Rob Lee
Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive: The west needs to prepare the country’s military for a long war
Just yesterday, Russian deputy prime minister and minister of trade and industry Denis Manturov reported the following updates:
More tanks were produced in the first quarter of 2023 than in the whole of 2022.
There are 7 times more weapons fired than in 2022.
The total volume of military production will increase by 4 times in 2023.
This is in addition to the previously reported figures from Rostec CEO Chemezov that Russia has produced 300+ helicopters in the first few months of this year, compared to ~150 for all of last year.
Extrapolating, Russia had previously manufactured upwards of 150-250 tanks per year, with Medvedev promising to upscale this to 1600+.
Mark Milley Three polar world
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/how-to-avoid-great-power-war-mark-milley
Unlike the Cold War, now, you’ve got three great powers in the world: the United States, China, and Russia. All have significant inherent power potential in their populations, their economy, and of course their military. And all three have substantial nuclear arsenals. So the United States is the most powerful by any measure. But having said that, Russia and China are quite powerful as well. So it is not in the U.S. interest to see Russia and China form a strategic military alliance, and we should do what we can to make sure that that doesn’t happen.
But three is going to be more complicated than two, where the Cold War relationship was between the Soviet Union and the United States, you know, and there were other powers that hovered around each of those two countries. But it was really a struggle between the Soviet Union and the United States. So it was a bipolar world, even though I acknowledge that there were other powers. Today we’re in a tripolar world, so three is more complicated than two—and that relationship is very difficult to manage.
So what we have to be conscious of, and careful of, is not to drive China and Russia close together in a military sense. There’s going to be relations between countries, so competition’s not the issue here. The issue is conflict and war. So we want to make sure that Russia and China don’t form some sort of geostrategic, political, military alliance against the United States. There are some indicators out there of China and Russia becoming closer together. I would say that, they bear watching very, very closely, although—
Strategy Tactic
Front Zaporozhie
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/anatomy-of-a-nato-planned-trained?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2
The 47th was in fact considered by some to be Ukraine’s strongest unit. By ‘all volunteer’ they don’t mean volunteers in the regular sense, like untrained civilians volunteering for service. They mean actual seasoned Ukrainian soldiers who volunteered to be transferred into this most ‘elite’ assault unit knowing that it will be a vanguard style unit with a lot of risk but equipped with the best weaponry.
So, the biggest question I see being asked on social media, particularly from distraught and devastated Ukrainian supporters, is how is it possible an elite NATO-trained Ukrainian brigade can have such ‘poor’ tactics such as “bunching” and not dispersing, and following each other in an easy to kill conga line.
We can clearly see that the AFU brigade was following a strict protocol of sticking to the passage of turned up earth that the FWMPs were creating for them….
no one in NATO has ever had to navigate such a highly contested environment, not only from the standpoint of not having air dominance/superiority/support, but even having to actually work through minefields like these in a contested environment with large maneuver formations. Name me a single battle or conflict where a NATO force had to work through such scenarios as what AFU was up against yesterday?
Romanchok
https://sputnikglobe.com/20230610/scott-ritter-ukrainian-counteroffensive-runs-into-defensive-wall-1111050140.html
This, of course, should have taken no one by surprise, since the individual in command of Russian forces in the Zaporozhye area is Colonel General Alexander Romanchuk, the man who is responsible for conceiving modern Russian defensive doctrine. In April 2023 Romanchuk, who at that time was serving as the Rector of the Combined Arms Academy of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (the equivalent of the United States Army’s Command and General Staff College at Fort Leavenworth), co-authored an article titled "Prospects for Improving the Efficiency of Army Defensive Operations."
In the article, Romanchuk noted that the main mission of a defending force "is to neutralize the initiative of the advancing enemy, i.e., to bring him to the state of impossibility to continue advancing with deployed forces. Ultimately, this allows you to reduce his activity and seize the initiative by going over to a decisive counter-offensive to defeat the enemy with shock groups."
This represents a restatement of Soviet-era doctrine. Indeed, Romanchuk draws upon the defeat of German offensive operations in the vicinity of Lake Balaton in March 1945 as representing an ideal implementation of this doctrine, underscoring "a bold maneuver of the reserves…especially artillery, the skillful use of anti-tank reserves, vigilant detachments of obstacles and the arrangement of fire ambushes" by the Russian forces in defeating the German attack.
Romanchuk, however, did not simply reiterate old doctrine in his paper. Instead, he emphasizes the concept of "dispersed forces'' in building a defensive scheme capable of prevailing on the modern battlefield. "A dispersed defensive operation should become a logical response to a superior enemy," Romanchuk writes….
But courage and commitment cannot overcome the reality that NATO lacks the ability, both in terms of equipment and doctrine, to successfully defeat Russia in a force-on-force confrontation, especially one which has Russia playing to its doctrinal strength (defensive operations) while NATO seeks to do something (an assault against prepared defenses) that it has no experience in doing.
Moreover, NATO and the Ukrainian high command threw the Ukrainian brigades into the teeth of the Russian defensive buzzsaw without adequate fire support, meaning that the Russians were free to maximize their superiority in artillery and air power to neutralize and destroy the Ukrainian attacking forces before they could generate the momentum expected from "high-tempo maneuver."
Gerasimov Doctrine
https://sputnikglobe.com/20170701/gerasimov-doctrine-analysis-1055151104.html
Gerasimov wrote: "In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of war and peace. Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template….The role of nonmilitary means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of force of weapons in their effectiveness. The focus of applied methods of conflict has altered in the direction of the broad use of political, economic, informational, humanitarian, and other nonmilitary measures — applied in coordination with the protest potential of the population."
Debate
https://svpressa.ru/blogs/article/375411/
Why does capitalism need left-wing parties and trade unions?
All these arguments of the re-communists, even if they are at least partially accurate, allow us to draw a paradoxical conclusion: for the continuation of capitalism, left-wing parties and trade unions are very important! After all, if they do not exist, then there will be no one to restrain and redirect the energy of outraged, exploited workers. If there are no trade unions, it is more likely that the energy of social protest will break out during a large-scale economic crisis. It can take on an organized character, creating, as Argentine newspapers wrote during the crisis in Buenos Aires in the early 2000s, "a terrible system of Soviets."
That is why left-wing parties and trade unions are legal in many countries of the world. They are a "safety cushion"for the system. If the system ignores them, it can face disaster.
Kachovka Dam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attack_on_the_Sui-ho_Dam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Chastise
Western Politicians
https://tass.com/politics/1630515
Scholz Putin Peskov 10. June
https://ria.ru/20230613/zapad-1877687838.html
Baerbock, Austin, Blinken
But when diplomats of Western powers are everywhere and already somehow systematically taught good manners - this is visible to everyone and will be included in history books as a sign of the arrival of new times.
Differences
https://ria.ru/20230610/rossiya-1877318249.html
Macron, Brics, China
Berlin — with its economy that is now losing its footing, but still has its strength-does not need any new candidates for EU membership. Paris just really wants to support its weakening body with the help of applicants huddled in line: Ukraine, Moldova, further down the list.
Diverse
https://sonar21.com/what-could-russia-demand-to-negotiate-an-end-to-the-war-in-ukraine/
https://www.permaculturenews.org/2010/12/16/closing-the-collapse-gap-the-ussr-was-better-prepared-for-collapse-than-the-us/
