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اولتیماتوم: چهره جهان دگرگون می شود!

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گفتاری درباره اولتیماتوم روسیه به آمریکا و ناتو؛ زلزله در ژئوپلیتیک جهانی؛ چرا و چگونه جهان به این لحظه رسید و چگونه از آن خارج خواهد شد؟ نقش و موقعیت آینده بازیکنان سیاست بین المللی چه خواهد بود؟

بهمن شفیق

1 دی 1400

22 دسامبر 2021

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برخی منابع مورد استفاده یا مفید:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-donfried-visit-security-guarantees/31610737.html

Russia has presented the United States with a set of proposals for binding Western security guarantees during a meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Karen Donfried in Moscow on December 15, the Kremlin said.

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790818/?lang=en

https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/rso/nato/1790803/?lang=en&clear_cache=Y

https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/us-nato-wont-accept/

From the US and NATO’s perspective, that would mean capitulating to Moscow, which is politically unacceptable. Moreover, Washington and the EU countries see no reason why they should agree to overhaul the post-Cold War European security system. To put it simply, there is no real threat, and Moscow probably understands that. So maybe they expect the West to publicly refuse, and later say that the offer was on the table and they didn’t take it. In other words, this would give the Kremlin free rein when it comes to reshaping the current system.

In that case, we will see more steps meant to demonstrate Russia’s determination to change the status quo no matter what the West has to say about it. The sheer scale of the proposed changes implies that simply accepting the refusal and leaving it be until the next round of talks is not an option. That would undermine the credibility of any further statements on the subject. So the question now is, what is Russia going to do should the West shoot down this proposal?

https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/natos-mistake-russia-1990s/

https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/natos-projectile-dysfunction/

http://thesaker.is/russias-ultimatum-to-the-west/

http://thesaker.is/quick-update-on-the-russian-ultimatum/

http://thesaker.is/what-could-happen-next-if-the-usa-rejects-the-russian-ultimatum/

https://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/people-asked-i-respond-on-run.html

http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2021/12/here-i-talk-little-bit-about-timing.html

https://cluborlov.wordpress.com/2021/12/10/biden-to-russia-dont-you-dare-eat-this-moldy-bagel/

http://www.irdiplomacy.ir/fa/news/2008457/مرحله-جدید-روابط-روسیه-و-ناتو

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1242876.shtml

The "China-Russia bond" is a solid union like a mountain, Wang said, "No matter how the international situation changes, China and Russia will remain committed to an enduring friendship, achieving win-win cooperation and upholding peace."

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202112/1242938.shtml

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/21/opinions/putin-russia-europe-chessboard-michael-bociurkiw/index.html

Michael Bociurkiw

Without firing a shot, Putin has managed to send the West into a collective panic -- or at least into a position where they feel the need to appease the aging autocrat.

Putin's endgame is USSR 2.0, coming almost 30 years to the day the Soviet Union collapsed. His next moves come at a delicate geopolitical moment, with Western fears of a Ukraine invasion, the colonization of Belarus, a Europe-wide energy crisis, German Chancellor Angela Merkel stepping down as EU chief negotiator and concerns over US President Joe Biden's discombobulated foreign policy.

What are the tools left in the West's diplomatic toolbox? Depressingly few. But some options remain: banning Russians from travel, blocking those multimillion dollar property deals which have transformed London and Miami into playgrounds for wealthy Russians -- even ordering the immediate expulsion of Russian nationals from Western countries. In other words, whatever it takes short of direct military conflict.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/17/politics/russia-troops-ukraine-border-biden/index.html

"One nation can't force another nation to change its border; one nation cannot tell another to change its politics; and nations can't tell others who they can work with," Biden told Putin during their meeting,

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/12/russian-treaty-proposals-hark-back-post-cold-war-era

But NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has wisely not ruled out discussions on Russia’s demands, and this could be an opportunity to address NATO concerns over Russia’s military activities, weapons development and deployment, and European security more widely. But this is a potential trap for the new NATO states as there is a risk concessions will be made but adhered to by only one side.

https://www.voanews.com/a/experts-us-allies-not-likely-to-agree-to-russian-security-guarantees-/6359964.html

The United States and its NATO allies, however, signaled that they might be willing to enter talks with Russia, especially if the Kremlin agrees to draw down troop levels along its border with Ukraine that have raised concerns about a possible invasion.

U.S. and NATO officials noted that the drafts contain no major concessions from Russia on alliance concerns, such as troop levels near Ukraine and other aggressive actions by the Kremlin.

Experts concerned

The unconventional nature of Russia's gambit left some experts worried about what the Kremlin expected to achieve by it. Russian officials presented the draft treaties to the United States and NATO on Wednesday and then suddenly made the documents public on Friday, before the supposed counterparties to the agreements had enough time to respond.

"For a country that is well-versed in negotiations and treaties … the notion of sending us a draft treaty is somewhat absurd, and I'm sure the Russians understand that," he said.

"Then what's the point?" Edmonds said. "The point is that it lays a very thin veneer of legitimacy over the very high probability that they're going to go into Ukraine in the next couple of months."

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/12/putin-russia-treaty-u-s-ukraine.html

No, We Are Not Headed Toward Another Cold War

And yet Biden has also said that, even if Russia were to invade Ukraine (or, to put it more accurately, were to invade Ukraine beyond its 2014 armed incursion into the eastern province of Donbas and its annexation of Crimea), the U.S. would respond with severe economic sanctions—not with military force. If Ukraine were a member of NATO, the U.S. and the other allies would be obligated to respond with force. Yet no one in a position of power advocates doing this—even as some officials believe Russia is planning to invade. So Putin could also ask Biden, with some legitimacy: Why are you making such a fuss about my demand to keep Ukraine out of NATO?

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-russian-treaty-proposal/

By George Friedman

The key from my point of view is that no one wants a war in Ukraine because it would be long and bloody, and the geographic advantage would go to Russia. A proposal on the table, regardless of how preposterous, can give cautious nations an opportunity to capitulate while appearing to prefer a diplomatic course to irrational military responses. Much of Europe is unwilling to fight for Ukrainian independence. The United States, concerned with the free spread of Russian power through military force, might choose an intervention. This proposal might well be seen in Europe as a “basis of discussion,” limiting American options.

In any case, the key piece of Russian reconstruction – Ukraine – is on the table, and the document so completely confuses the issues, by demanding fundamental shifts in how the U.S. operates, that something may be conceded under European pressure. Putin has nothing to lose from this document and something to gain. I would assume the American response will be to refuse talks based on the document.

https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202112/t20211215_10470186.html

https://eu.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2021/12/08/roger-wicker-senator-joe-biden-russia-vladimir-putin-ukraine-tensions-military-actions/6431851001/

Sen. Wicker urges Biden not to rule out military action, including nukes, in Russia dealings

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/ISW-CT-Forecast-Series_Piece-2.pdf?x91208

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/12/17/russia-united-states-cold-war/

So while the Soviet Union is gone, the fight between the United States and Russia somehow survives.

In America, we seem to be collectively stuck in the past. Just as we did during the Cold War, we see ourselves as the good-guy victims of an immoral opponent. This time, the Russian state, personified by Vladimir Putin, is the one-dimensional enemy. The common narrative begins with basic truths: Putin wants to reclaim past Soviet glory, is a politically repressive dictator and is determined to spread Russia’s autocratic system abroad. This is all accurate. But instead of adding complexity to the picture by trying to understand Putin’s point of view, we reduce him to a wholly malevolent force that is attacking our nation out of spite, using propaganda and lies to turn our citizens against one another.

what would it look like if we tried, by ourselves, to ratchet down this dangerous back and forth? We might, for example, rescind sanctions against Russia. Our government might stop making pronouncements on the Russians’ internal affairs and let them figure out their own problems without our unwelcome criticism (criticism better meted out to all countries by private individuals and organizations, not foreign governments). We could extend an olive branch by releasing Aldrich Ames and Robert Hanssen, traitors who were directly responsible for the deaths of numerous Soviets spying for the United States and who have each spent more than two decades in American prisons.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/russia-alone-did-not-destabilize-ukraine-198065

It is not too late for the West to consider a more balanced diplomatic approach to restore a more stable situation.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/kilo-class-russias-black-hole-submarine-167958

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/war-over-ukraine-inevitable-198376

Ultimately, the choice is Putin’s. If he prefers to continue the force buildup on Ukraine’s border, he is likely to provoke an increasingly tough NATO response both economically—even previously passive Germany is now threatening to cut off the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline—and militarily.

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/will-putin’s-ultimatum-lead-war-198220

Michael Kofman, director of the Russia Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analysis and a fellow at the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC, offered a bleak assessment of the ongoing talks on Twitter: “Moscow has not only been asking for things it cannot get, but in a way they know will ensure they cannot attain them. Serious negotiations are done behind closed doors. Something is very wrong with this picture, the pol[itical] side appears to be a smokescreen.” Kofman’s statement echoes the concern that the proposal, and the take-it-or-leave-it style in which it was delivered, is a kind of July Ultimatum that the Kremlin fully expects to be rejected by the West—that rejection could then be used as a pretext for further military escalation or future military action.

https://patrickarmstrong.ca/2021/12/21/weve-seen-the-ultimatum-what-is-the-or-else/

https://www.dw.com/en/german-industry-defends-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline/a-45611911

"I have a big problem with a third country interfering in our energy policy," BDI President Dieter Kempf told the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung on Monday

https://www.nachdenkseiten.de/?p=79226

Von Ralph Bosshard Mag., Oberstleutnant iG. – Vorbemerkung zum Autor: Er war Berufsoffizier der Schweizer Armee, u.a. Ausbilder an der Generalstabsschule und Chef der Operationsplanung im Führungsstab der Armee.

Die vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen zur Vermeidung potenziell gefährlicher Zwischenfälle auf See und in der Luft sind längst schon überfällig.

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