بهمن شفیق

14 تیر 1402

5 ژوئیه 2023

SPIEF

https://rueconomics.ru/24114065-vse_hotyat_uchastvovat_v_uspehe_rossii_zapad_nepriyatno_udivili_rezul_tati_pmef_2023

It was visited by representatives of 130 states and territories, and the total amount of transactions amounted to 3.8 trillion rubles.

2021 13500

2022 14000

2023 17000, 130 countries

Among the most numerous delegations were the United Arab Emirates (200 people), China (147), India (58), Myanmar (50), Kazakhstan (40), Cuba (39) and the United States (27).

https://sputnikglobe.com/20230616/pepe-escobar-russias-new-roadmap-for-multipolar-world-1111204612.html

The unflappable Nabiullina stressed now “inter-operability” will help “the Russian paying system to be integrated in the global system”. She remains in favor of “selected privatization”, keeping “confidence in capital markets”, and low inflation.

Gong Jiong, from the University of International Business and Economics (UIBE), focused on what he defined as “The Great Re-Orientation”. China of course is at the center: its biggest trade partner is in fact ASEAN. In parallel, China trade with Russia increased 40% last year and it may reach “way more than $200 billion by the end of 2023”, with no less than 70% - and counting - settled in yuan and ruble. The Russian Central Bank already holds 40% of its reserves in yuan. Welcome to the multipolar currency world.

Privatization

https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/376760/

"Transneft", Russian Railways, "Russian Post", included in "Rostec" and "Rosatom" companies-this is not a complete list of what the "liberals" want to put under the hammer. Or rather, transfer it under the control of foreign capital.

"The state owns a large number of assets that are not used properly, and allowing businesses there will create new opportunities. Therefore, from the point of view of accelerating growth and opportunities for investment — yes, from the point of view of fiscal issues — well, it's probably very difficult to overestimate the current situation," said Maxim Reshetnikov, Minister of Economic Development.

VTB CEO Andrey Kostin was the first to mention the idea of "privatization 2.0" in April 2023, but everyone took a break for a while. Apparently, in order to assess the reaction of the people. Such, alas, did not follow. And now, as it broke through, all the supporters of the" market " economy vied with each other to start yelling that they need to sell everything quickly.

Six days week

https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/376828/

Recall that this idea was made by a certain Association of Entrepreneurs for the development of Business patriotism. They complained about the increased burden on the economic sector due to the anti-Russian sanctions imposed by the West. And they decided that Russians should work harder.

According to the authors of the initiative, increasing the length of the working week should increase the strength of the Russian economy in the face of modern challenges. It will also allow us to achieve technological and industrial breakthroughs, as well as strengthen economic sovereignty. But the employees did not support the entrepreneurs. 82% of citizens were against it. Entrepreneurs, by the way, were also interviewed. So, only 3% of the surveyed businessmen supported the six-day plan. Those who want to deprive themselves of a legal day off are clearly few.

Davos: 4 Day week

https://iz.ru/1530702/mariia-stroiteleva/snachala-byli-slova-o-chem-govorili-na-pmef

The main topic of the first day of the forum was changes in the Russian economy.

"The structural adjustment of the economy is happening faster than we expected. The worst forecasts were not justified, " said the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina.

She also proposed to carry out privatization.

"We have something to privatize without compromising our strategic interests," the head of the regulator said.

It was supported by the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov.

"Indeed, the state has quite a lot of assets that are not properly used and which, if we give businesses the opportunity to invest there, create the very new offer," he said.

Putin:

He acknowledged that the second quarter of last year was the most difficult for the Russian economy and business. The President also said that GDP in April this year grew by 3.3% in annual terms, and by the end of the year it may add 1-2%.

Inflation in Russia is 2.9%, unemployment is 3.3%, 1.7 million people left the poverty line in 2022, Vladimir Putin announced other figures.

The Head of State also touched upon the social issue.

"Starting from January 1, 2024, the minimum wage will be increased by 18.5%, to 19,242 rubles. This will affect the incomes of 4.8 million people, " he said, calling for Russia to become a country of high wages.

Vladimir Putin also proposed a number of measures to support businesses: raise the thresholds for large and especially large property damage under a number of criminal articles, declare an amnesty for forced currency violations, work out a preferential transition tax regime for companies that grow out of the category of small and medium-sized enterprises, etc.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VTB_Capital

VTB Capital has been ranked among the top investment banks in Russia, the CIS and Central and Eastern Europe regions according to industry league tables, including Bloomberg,[2] Thomson Reuters and Dealogic. In 2013

Created in 2008, the business is headquartered in Moscow with offices in London, Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, New York City, Vienna, Sofia and Kyiv.[4][5] To establish VTB Capital, numerous bankers from Deutsche Bank's Moscow office were hired.[6]

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/6/16/1216787.html

VTB CEO Andrey Kostin was the first to nominate her in April. According to him, privatization and an increase in the national debt can become sources of money that are needed to build a new model of the Russian economy. He believes that Russian businesses have already accumulated investment potential, and there is money in the country to buy assets.

In May, the idea was supported by Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev. According to him, large-scale privatization in Russia should take place, but for this it is necessary to create a market. "There was a program article by VTB President and Chairman of the Management Board Andrey Kostin, where he suggested returning to this issue. In fact, no one is against it. The problem is that we first need to fulfill a number of instructions of the president on the formation of an internal investor, " Moiseev said.

On Thursday at SPIEF, the idea of privatization was supported by the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. According to her, there are assets in the country that can be privatized without compromising strategic interests. In turn, Presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin agreed that what is needed is not a large-scale privatization, but a way out of " inefficiently used assets by the state for the benefit and benefit of the state."

LIFE Quality

https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/376525/

Instead of juices — chemicals, the domestic consumer returned to the 90s.

"The demand for fruit drinks has significantly increased: revenue growth was 22%, and the number of checks — 3%. Demand for compotes also increased: revenue increased by 12%, the number of receipts - by 3%. But the popularity of juice has declined: sales amounts have fallen by 19%, the number of checks - by 37%, "the Kontur study says.Yandex. Market " on the sale of beverages.

Putin Speech SPIEF

https://svpressa.ru/society/news/376794/

Another indexation of the minimum wage by 18.5% will occur from January 1, 2024. This was announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin during a speech at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

https://expert.ru/expert/2023/25/pmef-2023-era-predlozheniya/

The President radiates optimism and calls for a transition to a supply-side economy. State-owned bankers remain the most important link in the Russian economy. New privatization ahead

Russia is close to a historic low of 2.9%, unemployment is 3.3%, and public finances are generally balanced: there is a small current federal budget deficit, but it is largely due to the transfer of spending to an earlier date.

Yes, the situation with oil and gas revenues is not easy, but the dynamics of non-oil and gas revenues is noteworthy. In January‒May, they grew by 9.1%, which is significantly higher than expected. At the same time, in May, the rate was +28.5% year – on-year.

The President also reminded that the real disposable income of the population has finally started to grow-due to the indexation of pensions, allowances, the minimum wage and the subsistence minimum. "This supports demand, which means domestic production and the service sector, especially enterprises in the regions and in the local areas," the head of state said. And a little later he added: now we are talking about a transition to a qualitatively new level of development, a sovereign economy that not only responds to market conditions and takes into account demand, but also forms it: "Such an economy, it is often called the supply economy, involves a large-scale increase in productive forces and the service sector. Strengthening the infrastructure network everywhere, mastering advanced technologies, creating new modern industrial capacities and entire industries, including in areas where we have not yet proved ourselves properly, but we certainly have the opportunities for this."

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov

In recent years, especially in 2022-2023, the main source of investment has been the state. But it seems that this is the limit. "Over the past three years, from 2019 to 2022, we have increased our expenses by one and a half times. Can you imagine? One and a half times. It was 18, it became 29 trillion rubles. Where to next? This is simply impossible, " Finance Minister Anton Siluanov outlined the main state problem. "If we want significant, large expenditures, we need to understand where the money will come from. Money doesn't come out of thin air. Either we will increase the [budget] deficit and, accordingly, inflation and rates, and the population and business will pay for it, or we will increase taxes, " Siluanov warned.

So, presidential aide Maxim Oreshkin unequivocally stated that raising taxes on businesses would be counterproductive, since the potential gain from increasing taxes would be less than the losses from slowing the economy. And the Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov agreed: any tax burden on business will undermine the growth of private investment, which is necessary for the economy.

The tax base in Russia should increase due to the growth of the economy, and not tightening the screws, said billionaire Alexey Mordashov. According to him, businesses should understand the conditions in which they will have to work.

Importantly, a new vector was set during the SPIEF: the return of private initiative. The Stolypin Institute and ICSI managed to prepare a study presented at the forum and called "smart reform of state capitalism". The main idea is privatization with the preservation of the state's "golden" share, the sale of inefficient enterprises and the decentralization of management of companies with state participation.

Basic Income?

https://expert.ru/2023/06/16/putin-provozglasil-novuyu-ekonomicheskuyu-doktrinu/

Vladimir Putin announced four main theses of a "proactive economic policy" that will become Russia's new course.

"Changes in the world in all its spheres are cardinal, profound and irreversible," the President stated in his speech. — In these conditions, we need to move only forward, which means that we need a proactive economic policy. In essence, we are talking about moving to a qualitatively new level of development — a sovereign economy that not only responds to market conditions and takes into account demand, but also forms this demand itself."

And the first direction of its development is employment and improvement of its structure. It is necessary to increase the economic activity of citizens, help them realize themselves in new, growing, promising sectors.

In the regions, it is necessary to launch projects to retrain adults in new specialties, and for young people, universities and secondary specialized institutions should increase their focus on getting a job after graduation. To motivate educational institutions, their rating will be compiled based on data on the employment of graduates. And the government and the governor's offices will annually prepare a five-year forecast of the need for personnel at the level of the entire economy.

An attractive salary should certainly contribute to increasing the economic activity of the population. To do this, despite low inflation, the minimum wage will increase by a double-digit percentage every year, and by 2030 it will be at least twice as high in purchasing power as it is now. At the same time, social payments for children or caring for a disabled person in the family will no longer depend on wages.

Many of these payments depend on whether a person works or not. These payments are linked to family income. If such income increases even slightly, then social benefits are stopped or significantly reduced. This means that a person has no incentive to look for a new job or a higher salary. We must change this situation, " the president of the executive branch said.

The second direction of development of the supply economy is the expansion of entrepreneurial activity. Small and medium-sized businesses in Russia now employ 28 million people, which is better than before, but not enough.

Last year, Vladimir Putin already ordered to limit the number of inspections of businesses, and this time he took an even more decisive step: "If a business is not associated with high risks of causing harm to citizens or the environment, then it should not be checked at all — either on a planned basis or in an unscheduled one. There are enough preventive measures, " he ordered.

The third key area of development of the supply-side economy is related to ensuring investment growth.

"We need to increase their inflows to projects for the production of priority industrial products. Already this year, the volume of such investments should reach at least two trillion rubles, and by 2030 it will increase fivefold — up to ten trillion rubles, " the president said.

To do this, it is necessary to unlock the potential of the Russian stock market: launch bonds with the right to share in the company's revenue, allow banks to participate in projects as shareholders. "And in order to further support and saturate our stock market, a special decision has been made: when foreign owners sell Russian assets, part of the shares should go to the Russian stock exchange," Putin said.

The fourth direction of the supply economy is to increase labor productivity, including through robotization and the development of artificial intelligence technologies.

"In Russia, due to objective demographic processes, the supply on the labor market will be limited," the president stated. — In these conditions, it is extremely important for us to increase the pace of automation. Just a few days ago, KAMAZ unmanned trucks were launched on the Neva federal highway. Self-driving taxis are already operating on the streets of Moscow “Yandex”. These are good, but so far isolated examples, and we need mass implementation of such technologies."

https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2023/06/15/17139644.shtml

Nabiullina

Planned economy and new privatization. The main thing from Nabiullina's speech at SPIEF-2023

The temptation to manage the structural adjustment of the Russian economy may lead to the suppression of private initiative and a return to the state plan, according to the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina. Speaking at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, she also spoke about the possibility of new privatization and that the desire to rely only on one's own strength is not always correct

https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2023/06/15/17142182.shtml

Peskov

Peskov: the idea of privatization is on the agenda, the economic block of the government supports it

https://vz.ru/economy/2023/6/19/1217284.html

Siluanov's thesis can also be understood more directly. Looking at the statistics of capital outflows from Russia over the past 30 years, we can see that the share of world GDP that went to the country's population and entrepreneurs who continued to develop their business in it, and not outside it, was significantly less than the country as a whole earned. Just getting rid of the" dues " of the global dollar system alone will increase Russia's share of global consumption by at least 10% (in 2022, Russia's GDP amounted to $ 2.13 trillion, and capital outflow – $ 217 billion). In reality, of course, it would also be important whether the money not exported from Russia would be used for additional investment or for increased consumption.

But inclusion in the international division of labor (even with friendly countries) can occur under different scenarios. At one time, China (and before that, Japan and South Korea) joined this division of labor, having the only advantage – hardworking and cheap labor.

https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/378303/

https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/orban-weak-nations-to-fall-strong-to-survive/

https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/06/the-new-york-times-thinks-worker-suffering-is-a-fair-price-for-lower-inflation.html

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/who-gets-hurt-when-the-fed-hikes-rates

Summer Davos

https://www.khabaronline.ir/news/1784976/در-داوس-چین-2023-چه-گذشت

محمود سریع‌القلم

در ابتدای اجلاس و شاید جذاب ترین سخنرانی، ارائه نخست وزیر چین Li Qiang بود. حس می شد سخنرانی نخست وزیر چین را شاید تیمی بیست نفره از اقتصاددانان، سیاست ورزان و استراتژیست ها تهیه و تنظیم کرده بودند. واژه های دقیق، جمله بندی های حساب شده، قالب روشن و علمی و متن مملو از جهت گیری و پیغام بود. مانند هر سیاست مدار حرفه ای دیگر در سطح جهان، سخنرانی پر از آمار و ارقام بود زیرا دقت و تمرکز و فاصله گرفتن از ابهام تنها با آمار امکان پذیر است.

https://www.dw.com/en/chinese-industry-looks-for-business-as-usual-at-tianjin-world-economic-forum-meeting/a-66051950

There are good reasons for China to want these kind of international visitors: The country is actively courting investors. Many company representatives and politicians have come to Tianjin. But most of the big names are missing. Still, the organizers are happy about a significant number of company representatives from the US. There are also a number of European and African participants.

https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3225483/world-economic-forum-chinese-premier-li-qiang-address-14th-annual-meeting-new-champions-tianjin

Li Qiang wrapped up his 30-minute speech by stressing a commitment to the market economy, free trade and the continued contribution to a world economy that can be “beneficial for all”.

“
Our world is at the crossroads of changes. In one way, at the time of Covid, there is an increase of protectionism. Anti-globalism and uncertainties have become the new normal.”

Li Qiang starts his speech by warning that uncertainty and unpredictability have become the new normal, citing protectionism and unilateralism, while the tech revolution has deepened.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/china/article/2023/06/27/china-s-li-qiang-defends-globalization-at-summer-davos_6038106_162.html

Chinese Premier Li Qiang slammed efforts in the West to "de-risk" economies as a "false proposition" on Tuesday, June 27, hitting back against United States and European Union policy aimed at reducing their reliance on China.

In January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen described the EU's approach to China as "de-risking rather than decoupling" since the bloc still sought to work and trade with Beijing.

Meanwhile US President Joe Biden has kept former leader Donald Trump's hard line on China, and in some areas gone further, including banning exports of high-end semiconductors to the rising power.

Responding to Beijing's heated criticism of the move, Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Beijing last week insisted that the United States was not seeking "economic containment" of China.

"But at the same time," he said, "it's not in our interest to provide technology to China that could be used against us."

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202306/1293444.shtml

By Global Times

Published: Jun 29, 2023

High-profile names of CEOs and senior executives who have recently visited China include Microsoft's co-founder Bill Gates, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Apple CEO Tim Cook, Qualcomm CEO Cristiano Amon, ASML's CEO Peter Wennink, and JPMorgan Chase & Co's CEO Jamie Dimon.

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202301/1284381.shtml

The US has reached an agreement with the Netherlands and Japan to restrict exports of some advanced chipmaking machinery to China, including advanced lithography tools, Bloomberg reported on Saturday, citing sources.

The deal would extend some export controls the US adopted in October 2022 to companies in the two countries, including ASML Holding NV, Nikon Corp and Tokyo Electron Ltd, according to the report. The actual implementation of those restrictions could take months as the two countries finalize legal arrangements, it said.

https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-war/article/3226023/us-dutch-set-hit-chinas-chip-makers-one-two-punch

Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu in Washington decried the move and said the US “has deliberately blockaded and hobbled Chinese companies and forcibly relocated industries and pushed for decoupling”, and said China would “closely follow the developments and firmly safeguard our own interests”.

Japan, home to chip equipment makers Nikon Corp and Tokyo Electron Ltd, has since adopted rules to restrict exports of 23 types of semiconductor manufacturing equipment that will take effect July 23.

The Dutch government plans to announce new regulations on Friday with a licensing requirement for the top tier of ASML’S second-best product line, deep ultra violet (DUV) semiconductor equipment. ASML’s most sophisticated machines – extreme ultraviolet “EUV” lithography machines – are already restricted, and have never been shipped to China.

https://test.rtde.live/international/174345-germanium-und-gallium-exportbeschraenkung-ist/

https://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachrichten.de/703930/Handelskrieg-zwischen-USA-und-China-geht-in-die-naechste-Runde

Der Nachrichtenseite Caixin zufolge gehörten 2022 Japan, Deutschland und die Niederlande zu den wichtigsten Abnehmern von Gallium-Produkten. Bei Germanium lägen Japan, Frankreich, Deutschland und die USA vorne. Diese Metalle werden vor allem in Computerchips, in der Telekommunikation, in Solar-Panelen und Elektroautos eingesetzt.

Michael Hudson

https://michael-hudson.com/2023/06/america-has-just-destroyed-a-great-empire/

A nationalist reaction against U.S. dominance is rising throughout European politics, and instead of America locking in its control over European policy, the United States may end up losing – not only in Europe but most crucially throughout the Global South. Instead of turning Russia’s “ruble to rubble” as President Biden promised, Russia’s balance of trade has soared and its gold supply has increased. So have the gold holdings of other countries whose governments are now aiming to de-dollarize their economies.

But refraining from such behavior is all that America can offer. It has de-industrialized its own economy, and its idea of foreign investment is to carve out monopoly-rent seeking opportunities by concentrating technological monopolies and control of oil and grain trade in U.S. hands, as if this is economic efficiency, not rent-seeking.

What has occurred is a change in consciousness. We are seeing the Global Majority trying to create an independent and peacefully negotiated choice as to just what kind of an international order they want. Their aim is not merely to create alternatives to the use of dollars, but an entire new set of institutional alternatives to the IMF and World Bank, the SWIFT bank clearing system, the International Criminal Court and the entire array of institutions that U.S. diplomats have hijacked from the United Nations.

The upshot will be civilizational in scope. We are seeing not the End of History but a fresh alternative to U.S.-centered neoliberal finance capitalism and its junk economics of privatization, class war against labor. The idea that money and credit should be privatized in the hands of a narrow financial class instead of being a public utility to finance economic needs and rising living standards is finally facing its reckoning.

https://amerika21.de/analyse/264388/gegen-windmuehlen

Pension

https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/378471/

On June 29, the State Duma in its third final reading adopted a law on launching a new program for long-term savings of citizens with co-financing from the state….

Unlike the government's initial plans, participation in the formation of long-term savings is supposed to be exclusively on a voluntary basis. To do this, you need to sign an agreement with one or more non-state pension funds (NPFs) for at least 15 years. NPF citizens can choose independently.

You will only be able to use your savings as additional income after 15 years of participation in the program or when you reach the age of 55 for women and 60 for men. Funds can be withdrawn at any time, but with penalties. The exception is special life situations like expensive treatment. In addition, in the event of the death of a program participant, heirs will be able to receive their savings.

— What is the motivation for this law? The state, or rather the liberal financial bloc, tried to rehabilitate itself over the frozen funded part of pensions. Previously, they generally wanted to make this system mandatory. Fortunately, I was smart enough to leave it voluntary.

Citizens are lured by the fact that deposit insurance will amount to 2.8 million rubles. But the key question is different — if everything is so good and wonderful, why do you do all this not through the state pension fund, but again connect the NPF?

Let me remind you that we used to have 143 non-state pension funds, and now we have 32 left. Where are the other 11 billionaires who ran away with their retirement money? Disappeared in London and elsewhere. At the same time, only five criminal cases were initiated, and billions disappeared.

Wages GDP

https://svpressa.ru/economy/article/370095/

Valentin Katasonov

the share of wages in GDP for the period 1995-2022 decreased by 6.3 percentage points. The highest value of the share was in 1997 (51.3%). The share of wages in GDP last year was the lowest for the entire period under review (28 years). Here is a clear illustration of the relative impoverishment of employees under Russian capitalism. But the quarterly statistics of the share of wages last year ( % ): Q1 — 39.2; Q2 — 40.7; Q3 — 38.3; Q4 — 38.1.

We are constantly being chanted the mantra that, they say,"there are too many states in the economy." And the state is rapidly disappearing from the economy. Moreover, this disappearance has become especially noticeable at a time when it is necessary to build up the state's position in the economy. It is obvious to every literate and honest person that it is not the" market " (i.e., private capital), but the state that can provide the economic and military-economic mobilization necessary to win an undeclared war with the collective West.

Here, Eurostat (the statistical service of the European Union) has just released statistics on the GDP of the EU and individual member states by source of income. And what do we see? The share of employees, taking into account the redistribution of part of GDP by the state in their favor, amounted to 47% by the end of 2022. In some countries, this indicator is higher than the average. For example, in Germany-52%. By way of consolation, I can say that in a number of EU countries, the indicators are lower than in Russia. The lowest rates are in Greece (36%) and Ireland (25%).

The share of capital in all EU countries is 42%. However, one EU country surpassed Russia in this indicator. The record holder was Ireland — 70%. Russian oligarchs have someone to look up to.

The share of the state in the pie section of GDP in the EU as a whole is 11%. The maximum indicator is in Sweden-20%. But Ireland has only 5%.